In this three-way match between the outgoing deputy, the candidate of the New Popular Front and the list supported by the presidential majority, the National Rally is moving forward with confidence.
In the 7th constituency, where the RN came out on top everywhere during the last European elections, the question is whether the seat of Aurélien Lopez-Liguori can be contested. The outgoing MP seems to be presenting himself in a position of strength against his three opponents. His victory in 2022 against, already, the communist Gabriel Blasco (NFP), had not suffered from any dispute, with a score of 59.19% (27,378 votes) in the 2nd round, when the candidate Nupes at the time had to be satisfied with 18,873 votes.
An RN in a position of strength
Two years later, is it possible to imagine the outgoing MP, still carried by the navy blue wave, collapsing? This is what is at stake in this constituency with 135,473 inhabitants (Insee 2022), the majority of which is rural in its area, which concentrates the majority of its population in the urban centers of Sète, Agde and Pèzenas.
If the RN found itself reinforced on June 9 in all the municipalities of the constituency, the party chaired by Jordan Bardella remembers, nevertheless, that it could not say the same in the legislative elections of 2022. By uniting the left forces under the Nupes banner, Gabriel Blasco managed to win in Pèzenas and even in Sète, by an incredible margin of twelve small votes (7,236 against 7,224).
Will Blasco maintain his lead over Sète?
It remains to be seen whether, two years later, the dynamic New Popular Front will allow him to maintain this lead again. Because the bulk of the campaign is not concentrated only in Sète. As for Agde, Lopez-Liguori seems to be starting with some certainties. Two years ago, the RN candidate obtained 7,196 votes there, compared to 3,111 for Gabriel Blasco. On June 9, the National Rally even reached 49.3% in Agde, further confirming the idea of its comfortable lead in this catchment area.
Gizardin’s risky positioning
Opposite, if Daniel Pilaudeau tries his luck again despite his low score achieved in 2022 (0.71%), there is another candidate, out of the hat, which could redistribute the cards. The municipal councilor of Sète, Jocelyne Gizardin, is running under a banner that she prefers to call “Republican Concord”.
But the vice-president of the CCAS, with an eminently social fiber, is indeed invested by Horizons (she received, this Wednesday, support in Sète from Édouard Philippe, Editor’s note) and claims to have succeeded, on this 7th, the union of the moderate right, the center and the presidential majority. However, claiming the label of the latter more ostensibly has, it seems, been perceived as too risky. We remember how, in 2022, the outgoing deputy (Together!) Christophe Euzet, was kicked out (19.35%, eliminated in the 1st round)…
The key to this three-way match could lie in participation. Aurélien Lopez-Liguori, Gabriel Blasco and Jocelyne Gizardin are all counting on a lower abstention. In 2022, it had reached 52.37%. A total of 57,027 voters did not go to the polling stations. Quite a reserve of votes. It remains to be seen who will benefit the most.
