“Order in the streets, order in public accounts.” Jordan Bardella held a press conference on Monday June 24 to present the program of the National Rally for the legislative elections. “The measures are quantified, they are reasonable”, wanted to reassure the boss of the RN. But in reality, few figures were revealed during this presentation, as in the program posted online on the party website (fichier PDF). It is “vague”observes Elvire Guillaud, one of the economists interviewed by -, who looked (in the same way as for the program of the New Popular Front) on the figures presented by the RN.
Jordan Bardella promised Monday to lead a “merciless struggle” against “tax and social fraud”. These, he asserts, “cost tens of billions of euros each year”. In the RN program, this is also the only point supported by detailed figures. “According to the Court of Auditors, fraud would be of the order of 15 billion euros per year for VAT alone, from 10 to 20, or even 25 billion euros for fraud in social benefits”, we can read in the document. For his part, Julien Odoul, spokesperson for the RN, even mentioned 50 billion euros to be recovered by fighting against social benefit fraud, Wednesday, on -.
These estimates are significantly higher than those of the Court of Auditors. In 2023, in its annual report on Social Security, the Court of Auditors estimated fraud in social benefits between 6 and 8 billion per year, including around 4 billion euros for the amounts paid by Health Insurance. Less, therefore, than the lowest figure put forward in Jordan Bardella’s party program. RN executives “do what they want with the numbers”scathes Elvire Guillaud, lecturer at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, who mentions estimates “fanciful”. On the other hand, the programmatic document does not mention the fight against tax fraud – estimated at between 80 and 100 billion euros annually by the Solidaires Finances publique union, the only organization to put forward an assessment.
The RN has made another promise a key element of its campaign: the reduction in VAT on energy products. He wants to reduce his rate to 5.5% on fuels, gas and even electricity, instead of the current 20%. To implement this promise, it would first be necessary to modify a European directive on VAT, a process which requires the unanimity of the twenty-seven EU countries. In its current state, Europe allows a reduced VAT of 5.5% on gas and electricity, but not below 15% for fuels.
The RN also estimates that this reduction in taxation of energy products will cost 7 billion euros. “by the end of the year”and 12 billion euros over a full year. The Montaigne Institute, a liberal-inspired think tank, estimates the shortfall at 11.3 billion euros per year. Ifrap, a liberal think tank close to employers, even estimates it at 16.7 billion euros. Not far from the 17 billion euros calculated by the Ministry of the Economy, which communicated its calculation of this RN proposal to journalists in mid-June.
To finance this measure, the RN intends to eliminate the tax loophole for shipowners, which would bring in 1.2 billion euros for 2024, Jordan Bardella estimated on Monday. He promises to add a “reduction in the contribution to the European Union budget” of the order of two billion. But it could not be possible before 2028, explains the magazine Point, noting that the annual contribution of Member States is negotiated every seven years, with a mid-term review which has just been completed. Finally, the president of the RN mentions three billion euros taken from “increase in the contribution on inframarginal rents”, that is to say by attacking the profits of energy companies, inflated by the rise in energy prices. By adding it up, the 7 billion euros are not completely covered. But this example illustrates the mechanics of the RN’s economic program, believes Elvire Guillaud:
“They don’t have a lot of expenses, and their revenue is, in reality, savings.”
Elvire Guillaud, economistat -
The RN indeed intends to make other cuts in France’s budget, for example by eliminating state agencies. In the viewfinder, among others, the Regional Health Agencies (ARS): “To debureaucratize health, we will eliminate the ARS, which too often come from an accounting vision of health”, argued Jordan Bardella. This time, the RN does not provide an estimate of the expected savings.
The National Rally also emphasizes its intention to abolish State Medical Aid (AME). Wrongly asserting that the AME gives access to foreigners in an irregular situation to “the entire free treatment range”the far-right party wants to replace it with aid that would only cover “vital emergencies”. Amount of expected savings: a little over a billion euros, a sum that tends to attract consensus.
This abolition of the AME would make it possible to partly finance the repeal of the pension reform promised by the RN, which would only cost 1.6 billion euros, the party assured for a time. This is what one of its spokespersons, Fabrice Leggeri, assured again Monday morning on Public Senate. “It’s not possible, it’s too few, given the number of people concerned”slices Elvire Guillaud, denouncing a “real inconsistency”.
A clarification has been made in recent days. The repeal of the pension reform would ultimately weigh “9 billion euros, ultimately. When will the reform [sera] deployed”RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy told Reuters. And it will be compensated by other measures”, added the outgoing MP, responsible for financial issues within the party. In 2023, when deputies from the Liot group tabled a bill repealing the pension reform, Emmanuel Macron assured that it would cost 15 billion euros, and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne even spoke of 18 billion, reported West France. The reform envisaged by the RN would not, however, necessarily take the same parameters.
Jordan Bardella’s party also plans to make savings from its plan to reserve social benefits for French citizens, and to make certain benefits, including the RSA, conditional on five years of work in France. Ifrap estimates that this second measure would represent a saving of around 13 billion euros, but stresses that this proposal “does not appear constitutional as it stands”. “Many RN measures would be refused by the Constitutional Council, the EU or the European Court of Human Rights”, agrees Henry Sterdyniak, co-founder of Les Economistes atterrés, a left-leaning collective, on his blog (hosted by Mediapart).
The lack of overall figures and details in the RN program, as well as the scale of adjustments announced throughout the campaign, are criticized by a number of economists. “The National Rally program fits on a post-it and changes every day”, judged on - the economist Michaël Zemmour, teacher-researcher at the University of Lyon 2 and at Sciences Po, before Jordan Bardella’s press conference. Elvire Guillaud judges her economic project “fugitive, changing and imprecise”. Think tanks that have tried to calculate figures end up with accounts that are far from balanced. “The RN program is untenable from a budgetary point of view”writes the Jean-Jaurès foundation, while Ifrap calculates, in the current state of the elements disseminated by the party, “an additional deficit of at least 5.5 billion euros per year”.
The vagueness surrounding the financing of the program is due to “electoral campaign strategy that we know well”analyzed, on the set of -, the political scientist Bruno Cauvrai, researcher at Sciences Po. It is, he describes, “highlight a few chapter headings that are easy to remember, which speak to people. Above all, don’t go into the details of a long catalog and financing.”
“If we get into a long catalog and financing, we lose the thread of the narrative and we hold out the stick to be beaten.”
Bruno Cautres, political scientiston -
On several occasions on Monday, Jordan Bardella referred to a “second temps”, after an audit of the State accounts, the decision on the possibility of implementing certain proposals if it acceded to Matignon. Believing that the presidential camp has put France in a situation of “quasi-bankruptcy situation”with a public deficit reaching 5.5% of GDP in 2023, Jordan Bardella also warned of the thinness of “financial capacities that can be mobilized to reform”. A sign that certain campaign promises risk being overtaken by budgetary reality.
