Health spending will increase by 4.4% to 99.118 billion francs this year, according to KOF forecasts. They will amount to nearly 103 billion in 2025, or 12.1% of GDP, and more than 106 billion in 2026.
Health spending will continue to increase in the coming years, the ETH Economic Research Center (KOF) said on Tuesday. The increase should be 4.4% in 2024 (3.8% in 2023), 3.7% in 2025 (102.786 billion francs) and 3.4% in 2026 (106.326 billion).
Health spending represented 11.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, compared to 11.6% the previous year. The KOF forecasts 12% in 2024, 12.1% in 2025 and 12.2% in 2026. This share was only 9.1% in 2000. Per capita, this represents 10,684 francs in 2023, 11′ 003 francs in 2024, 11,303 francs in 2025 and 11,594 francs in 2025.
Population aging
In 2025, KOF expects a slight increase in prices before a downward trend by the end of 2026. Spending developments in the healthcare sector will continue to be dominated by an increase in volumes. This situation contrasts with other sectors of the economy such as hospitality and construction.
Forecasts show that the “long-term care” service will continue to record clearly above-average growth due to the aging of the population, underlines the KOF. On the service provider side, hospitals, medico-social institutions and medical practices are among the growth engines of the health system.
This growth is financed by an extension of cantonal payments and a greater increase in compulsory health insurance. This situation should result in higher premiums, according to KOF.
>> To find out more about the multiple causes of the explosion in health spending, watch the 7:30 p.m. topic:
Major challenges
“From a macroeconomic point of view, the increase in the share of health expenditure in the total expenditure of an economy is not problematic in itself in an aging society.” The Swiss health system is, however, facing major challenges regarding efficiency, quality and distribution issues linked to digitalization and the use of artificial intelligence through to the security of the supply of medicines, underlines the KOF.
The KOF forecasts are published annually. This study is supported by a scientific contribution from comparis.ch, the internet comparator.
>> Read also: Online health insurance comparators are unreliable
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