It was a week ago, Tuesday November 12: the left voted in favor of the revenue part of the finance bill for 2025. The conjunction of the center, the right and the extreme right led to its rejection, but the New Popular Front could congratulate itself on its unity, not only in opposing the government of Michel Barnier, but also in proposing an alternative budget.
Will this unity in the National Assembly last until the end of the budgetary marathon? Nothing is less certain with the arrival, Tuesday, November 19 in the hemicycle, of the end-of-management finance bill for 2024.
Stand out from LFI
If the finance law and the Social Security financing law are the stars of the annual budget marathon, the end-of-management finance bill is not just a technical text this year. In the absence of an amended finance bill, it is he who cancels 5.6 billion euros of credits in a context of aggravated budget deficit, after the 10 billion canceled by decree in February. In the other direction, it covers 4.2 billion in additional expenses incurred, from the crisis in New Caledonia to support for Ukraine and the cost of early legislative elections.
However, the PS could abstain on this more discreet text, undoubtedly allowing its adoption without forcing the government to draw the weapon of article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution. “We are moving towards abstention”, confirms a socialist deputy. Two reasons would explain this choice. On the one hand, do not oppose the financing of certain social aid and benefits, such as the allowance for disabled adults (€0.2 billion) and scholarships based on social criteria for students (€0.1 billion).
On the other hand, to mark a difference between the PS and La France insoumise, in other words to show that“there is a path on the left between the radical left and outdated social democracy” as represented in his eyes by the five-year term of François Hollande. On the revenue side of the budget, internal debates had already been intense within the socialist and environmentalist groups on the attitude to adopt. Some did not want to vote for a budget in which France's contribution to the European Union had been eliminated. “I won the arbitration, I put all my weight in the balance”, welcomes an influential MP on budgetary issues.
« Censure or not censure »
The main budgetary text, however, remains the finance bill for 2025. In the absence of a possible agreement between the National Assembly and the Senate, which will vote on December 12 on the entire budget, it will fall to a joint joint committee (CMP ) to seek a compromise. The CMP are made up of seven or eight members of the government coalition, and six or seven representatives of the oppositions (left and far right), due to a revolving door between three groups in the National Assembly – two from the majority (MoDem and Horizons), one from the opposition (ecologist).
Unless there is any surprise, the rest is known: the use this time of article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution on the text of the CMP, which will be largely inspired by the work of the Senate. Then the filing of a motion of censure by LFI. Will the PS vote for it? “We will not vote on the government budget, but we are not closing any options on a motion of censure,” an elected official simply responds. Which means both voting it and not voting it.
A minimum condition, nevertheless, for the PS not to vote for censorship: openness to a measure wanted by the left “to relieve the working and middle classes, rebalance the effort required of the French towards the greatest fortunes and businesses”summarizes a socialist deputy. It remains to be seen which proposal could be strong enough to satisfy the moderate left, and weak enough to be acceptable to the more liberal center and right.
There remains another unknown: the attitude of the RN. On Europe 1, MP Sébastien Chenu estimated that the Prime Minister was in the process of “create all the conditions for censorship and add them up day after day”. Decryption of a parliamentary group president supporting the government: “The RN is divided: the base is for clearance; Marine Le Pen's entourage believes that the party of order cannot add disorder to disorder. »
