Sacha Houlié has everything to lose in Poitiers-sud

It is obviously Sacha Houlié who has the most to lose in this constituency. The outgoing deputy of the presidential majority, until now president of the law committee in the National Assembly, will not have had a ministerial post during the last reshuffles… If he lost his mandate as deputy, one might think that his year will have been very dark.

A constituency long anchored on the left

On the contrarythe line of “left-wing Macronist” that he introduced during the debates on the immigration law (against which he voted) could perhaps prevent the deputy from being (a little too much) assimilated to the president rejected by the French. But for that, we would have to forget that he is at the origin of the Youth movement with Macron, giving him a central place within the famous “band of Poitiers”.

During this blitzkrieg, Sacha Houlié therefore tried to position himself as a rebel… But it was indeed a minister (that of Education, Nicole Belloubet) who came to support him last week. Inside or outside? Difficult to do at the same time.

This is certainly where Valérie Soumaille, candidate of the New Popular Front, will support to position herself as the alternative. Especially since in 2022, the Insoumise activist lost in the second round with the score of 48.81% of the votes. Since then, the Nupes has cracked. But the unionist is active in the constituency. On the evening of her defeat, she gave “meet in the street” to the early activists and the newly convinced Nupes. For two years, she was present on the social front.

Where is social democracy?

But the movement of which Valérie Soumaille is a part, La France insoumise, divides part of the left-wing electorate. It is therefore Aurélien Bourdier, a left-wing dissident – ​​still part of the Socialist Party – who could win votes from him. And also aspire to Sacha Houlié under the cover of “social democracy” claimed by both sides.

The two also have other things in common. Same generation: 35 years for Houlié, 39 years for Bourdier. Same profession: lawyer. Could a duel take place there? Knowing that, politically, the second constituency of Vienne has long been anchored to the left, notably held by the socialist Catherine Coutelle from 2007 to 2017.

22% of votes for the RN in Europeans

It will also be necessary to count on the RN vote which came, during the European elections of June 9, in the lead over the entire constituency with 22% of the votes (ahead of the 19.76% of Raphaël Glucksmann’s list and the 16 .72% of Valérie Hayer). In the 2022 legislative elections, the RN candidate came in third position with 13.48% while in 2017, the vote peaked at 8.10%.

The surge in recent years is significant and could be amplified. Especially since the party chose a 20-year-old activist, Estelle Chevallier, to hope to convince students and “right-wing youth”. Certainly hoping that this new face can benefit from “the Bardella effect”a 28-year-old figure in the movement adored by the youngest.

As for the Les Républicains party, if it has chosen not to nominate anyone, there will still be a diverse right-wing candidate, “Gaullist and humanist » who could grab a few votes from the RN.

Finally, for Lutte Ouvrière, the goal is to achieve the best possible score in the first round… The cause? Each ballot in favor of a candidate in the first round brings in €1.64, hence the proliferation of “small parties”. In 2022, overall in Vienne, Lutte Ouvrière was able to save the tidy sum of €3,944 in its wallet despite fairly modest results. Everyone has their own struggles.