The French team ends its Nations League group stage in Italy this Sunday (8:45 p.m. on TF1 and TF1+), three days after its draw against Israel (0-0).
Already qualified for the quarter-finals, the Blues can still finish first, which would give them top seed status.
What are the conditions to take first place from the “Squadra Azzurra”?
They didn't really shine, but that might not have any consequences. Thursday November 14, in a Stade de France (new window) three quarters empty, the Blues were only able to grab a draw against Israel (0-0) (new window)at the end of a meeting which they dominated without convincing. Just one small point taken against the 81st nation in the Fifa rankings (France is second), which is however enough to fulfill the objective: Didier Deschamps' men validated their ticket for the quarter-finals of the Nations League, in March 2025.
While waiting for the draw for the rest of this competition won by the Blues in 2021, another objective stands on the road to N'Golo Kanté (new window) and his teammates: first place. It is currently held by Italy (13 points), which the Tricolores face this Sunday, November 17 in Milan (8:45 p.m. live on TF1, TF1+ (new window) and live commentary on TF1info). With three lengths behind, the French have no choice. If they want to take first place from the Italians, and thus be among the top seeds, they must necessarily win.
Big victory or holy draw
And again, such a scenario would not necessarily be enough. In this scenario, the two teams would be tied, with 13 points. The official UEFA regulations (new window) in the League of Nations provides that direct confrontations are used as tiebreakers. However, last September, Italy came to win in style in France, at the Parc des Princes (1-3). If the Blues win by a single goal in Milan, the Blue team would then remain in first place thanks to a better particular goal difference.
If the Blues win by two goals, the two neighbors would then be tied in the general classification (13 lengths each), in the number of points taken during direct confrontations (3), in the particular goal difference or even in the number of goals scored in direct confrontations. We would then have to rely on the fifth criterion: the “best goal difference in all group matches”. Currently, Italy also dominates the debates (+7), a little better than France (+4). However, a victory for the 2018 world champions by two goals would change the trend. And would allow the Blues to take first place, as well as even greater success.
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Anecdotal? Not so much. During the quarter-finals, the first in the group will face the second. First place could thus make it possible to avoid Portugal, Germany or Spain, well on their way to finishing as leaders of their groups. But on the other side of the Alps, the last match of the year for the Blues will perhaps serve another purpose: to reassure themselves after a failed performance, or to plunge into doubt after a mixed year 2024…
