He attracted the wrath of the agricultural and political worlds, to the point of arousing the opposition of the President of the Republic. The free trade agreement currently being negotiated between the EU and the Common Market of South America (Mercosur) “is not a treaty which is acceptable as it stands”affirmed Emmanuel Macron at the end of October 2024.
The draft agreement, around which discussions began in 1999, intends to eliminate the majority of customs duties between the EU and Mercosur by creating the largest free trade area in the world (nearly 780 million consumers) .
If it were adopted, it would allow South American countries to sell meat, sugar, rice, honey, soybeans to Europe, etc. Which makes French farmers fear unfair competition, producers of South America is not subject to the same standards as those of the European Union.
Read also: POINT OF VIEW. “France faces the test of truth of the EU-Mercosur agreement”
On South Radio this Thursday, November 14, the Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, promised that Paris would use “all means” at its disposal to block the adoption of the treaty, “including institutional and voting means at European level”. In 2019, France had also succeeded, with other countries, in preventing the ratification of a first version of the agreement between the EU and Mercosur. But is it that simple?
At least four states must oppose the treaty to block its adoption
So that the text is not adopted, “we should have a blocking minority within the Council of the European Union”explains Marie-Pierre Vedrenne, MEP from the centrist and liberal Renew Europe group, of which the Renaissance Macronists are part. In other words, “at least four states, representing more than 35% of the population of the European Union, must formally oppose ratification to prevent it”.
Read also: Why the prospect of an agreement with Mercosur could awaken agricultural anger
A quorum far from guaranteed at this stage. If countries like Poland and Italy today say they are opposed to the treaty, Germany and Spain, on the contrary, are pushing for its adoption. However, these two countries alone already represent almost 30% of the EU population.
If the EU Council adopts the text, it will then be put to a vote by the European Parliament, which must adopt it by a majority. “The outcome of this election is not guaranteed either. The agricultural demonstrations which could resume in several countries of the Union will weigh on the choice of deputies”according to Marie-Pierre Vedrenne.
The European Commission could bypass the French parliament
However, there remains one last safeguard: to enter into force, the treaties must be ratified by each national parliament. It is enough for the deputies of a single Member State to oppose it for the agreement to collapse. In France, the result is already known: the majority of deputies and senators will vote against.
Read also: TESTIMONIALS. Standards, Ukrainian chicken, Mercosur… For these farmers, “nothing is settled”
But this may not be enough, if the European Commission chooses to resort to the technique of “ splitting », which consists of separating the commercial aspect from the other areas contained in the treaty. The commercial part would then not be subject to the vote of national parliaments, trade being an exclusive competence of the EU.
On Tuesday November 12, 70 French MPs signed a proposed European resolution calling on the government to “to weigh with all one’s weight” against the adoption of Mercosur. The day before, a platform to this effect had been signed by more than 200 deputies, from environmentalists to LR.
But on the benches of the National Assembly, some remain skeptical, like François Ruffin (LFI): “I believe that in the long term, Emmanuel Macron is a supporter of free trade. I believe he is making promises because there is public opinion which is very unfavorable […] but in truth, he will not put all his power into the balance to go against what is the basis of what he has been doing and thinking for twenty years. »
