(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange increases by 0.8% (compared to +0.3% this morning) and sinks below 7,200 in a context of caution following the publication of the latest data on the American inflation, which marks a slight acceleration, to +2.6%.
According to the Department of Labor, the US 'CPI' (consumer price index) increased by 0.2% in October 2024 compared to September.
Excluding energy (-4.9%) and food products (+2.1%), two traditionally volatile categories, the underlying annual inflation rate stood at 3.3% last month, a level also in decline. in line with economists' forecasts (sequentially, the CPI in 'core' data increased by 0.3%).
Wall Street did not react to this publication and the 3 main US indices reopened higher for the 6th consecutive session… but just like Tuesday, the initial gains vanished after the first half hour and red dominates, with symbolic differences between -0.1% (S&P500) and -0.2% (Nasdaq) while the Dow Jones regains 0.1%.
As a result, Wall Street continues to widen the gap compared to Europe (the E-Stoxx50 falls by -0.8% towards 4,700 and breaks the support of 4,730) which continues to fall with gaps of -3 at -3.5% in 48 hours compared to -0.2% for the S&P500.
If the pan-European index has now validated a clear break of the threshold of 4800 points (1st downward alert Tuesday), the VSTOXX barometer measuring its volatility remains relatively contained, remaining below the level of 18 points.
'This suggests that markets are not worried about growth prospects, but rather that they are adapting to a new reality,' say analysts at Danske Bank.
Under these conditions, investors will turn their attention in the coming days to economic indicators in order to determine whether the current differential between Europe and the United States is justified in practice.
The US interest rate markets continue to move close to the worst levels since the beginning of July: T-Bonds 2034 reached 4.435% on Tuesday evening and only eased by -2Pts towards 4.415% (after +10Pts the day before).
The scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in December becomes a hypothesis that receives less than 50% of traders' votes according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
Investors know that a strong economy – accompanied by a resurgence of inflation – would force the Fed to make fewer rate cuts than expected just before the presidential election.
In the meantime, in the third quarter of 2024, the number of unemployed in France (excluding Mayotte) as defined by the International Labor Office (ILO) increased by 35,000 compared to the previous quarter, to reach 2.3 million people, according to the INSEE.
In the European bond compartment, the Bund deteriorated by +3 points to 2.363%, our OATs by +1.5 points to 3.146%.
In the news of French companies, Interparfums estimates that its turnover should reach 910 to 930 million euros and that its operating margin should again exceed 19% in 2025, a year which will also mark the creation of the brand own Solférino'.
Thales announced on Wednesday the renewal of its maintenance and repair contract with Eastern Airlines Technic (EASTEC), the overhaul subsidiary of the Chinese airline China Eastern.
Finally, Medidata, the life sciences subsidiary of Dassault Systèmes, announced Tuesday evening that it had sealed a new agreement with Bioforum, a research organization dedicated to clinical trials.
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