“Rainy and stormy weather”, summarizes Christophe Duportal, president of the South-West Real Estate Observatory (Oiso), during the presentation, this Thursday, November 7, of the activity figures for new housing in Gironde in this third quarter 2024. The situation in the new real estate sector is worrying, as demonstrated by the latest trends.
In the third quarter of 2024 in Gironde, 486 lots were put up for sale on the market; a stable figure in 2024, but a drop of almost 50% compared to the third quarter of 2021, which included 970 lots. The price per square meter has stabilized at 5,000 euros on average in the department. The commercial offer consists of 3,472 lots available, down 11% compared to 2023.
End of the Pinel system
Between the second and third quarters of 2024, sales stabilized, with 408 made between July and September 2024, they increased by 12% in Gironde compared to the third quarter of 2023. However, in comparison with the third quarter of 2021, where the department recorded 748 sales, the figures fell by 45%.
Sales to investors represent 40% of the market in the third quarter of this year, compared to 30% in 2023. An increase that can be justified by the action of the drop in rates and the end of the Pinel system, next December, initially aimed at encourage rental investment in the new real estate sector.
At the same time, withdrawals continue and 164 homes were put back on the market or canceled this third quarter and 825 lots over the first nine months of the year. A figure considered “worrying”, according to the president of Oiso, and an increase of 30% compared to the first three quarters of 2023. The share of hard stock, housing delivered, but unsold, is not decreasing either, with 208 lots which did not find a buyer at the end of September. Taking into account future deliveries, 333 lots will be added at the end of the year.
Thinning
Despite everything, “there is a little bit of sunshine” and two zones shine on the Gironde territory. The Arcachon basin marks an increase of 9% in its sales – from the first to the third quarter of 2023 compared to those of 2024 – and of 23% in the Bordeaux metropolis. However, sales are falling drastically (around 67% in three years) and the commercial offer is contracting in the agglomeration which is made up of 2,515 available lots, including 193 hard stock lots. In the rest of the department, activity is almost non-existent.
Will this dynamic consolidate or is it artificial? »
Side by side with that of Toulouse, the metropolis of Bordeaux is positioned in a positive sales dynamic, unlike other large metropolises, such as Lyon and Montpellier, which are collapsing in terms of sales. “Will this dynamic consolidate or is it artificial? » asks Christophe Duportal, emphasizing that this trend could be influenced by short-term economic factors. To be continued.
