The year is not over but 2024 is already shaping up to be a record year in terms of France's electricity sales to its neighbors. EDF announced on Thursday, November 7, that the net export balance should reach 90 TWh. That is twice the annual consumption of a country like Portugal. This is unheard of. The previous annual net export record dated from 2002, with 77 TWh, and over the last 10 years, the average net export was 44 TWh.
Last year, France exported 50.3 TWh, bringing in some 4 billion euros to the trade balance. In 2022, on the other hand, France was a net importer of electricity for the first time since 1980, with a negative balance of 16.5 TWh. The fault is the stress corrosion problems encountered in part of the nuclear fleet and hydraulic production at half mast, due to the drought.
Dealing with the intermittency of renewables
But everything is starting to return to normal today. The dams are full and operating at full capacity. The reactors are gaining power again, even if their production is still lower than the level reached during the previous decade with, for example, 416 TWh in 2015 and 420 TWh in 2006!
EDF is now taking advantage of the situation made more complex on the markets by the development of intermittent renewable energies. When there is no wind, there is little or no wind power, as is currently the case, and solar production is obviously equal to zero, from the end of the day. For our neighbors, Germans for example, who no longer have nuclear power, it is better to buy French carbon-free electricity rather than running their gas or coal power plants.
Over the first six months of the year, France was a net exporter of electricity every day, mainly at peak times, early in the morning and in the evening, when demand is higher. It could even have sold even more, if there had not been work on certain interconnections, precisely to strengthen them, recognized RTE, the manager in its half-yearly report, published at the end of July.
The fall in prices is expected to continue
Prices on wholesale markets, which have returned to their pre-crisis levels, have thus once again become among the lowest in Europe in France, which obviously restores competitiveness to manufacturers and purchasing power to households. “ In 2022, French prices were on average €5 to €10 higher than German prices. Today they are €15 lower », underlines Marc Benayoun, director of EDF, in charge of the customer division. With Italy, the gap is even 40 €/MWh, in favor of France.
The movement should continue. According to the wholesale market, the average baseload electricity price was €84/MWh this year. It is currently trading at €72 for delivery in 2025, at €67 for 2026 and €64 for 2027.
But after the upheavals observed in recent years, with the invasion of Russia by Ukraine and the cessation of a large part of Russian gas deliveries, industrialists need to have guarantees, by signing contracts more long. “ This is a new trend that should last, with increasingly sophisticated offers, which take into account the price variability induced by renewables », underlines Julien Pourchon, spokesperson for Mon Courtier Energie. Since the start of the year, companies have signed contracts on average for a period of 41 months, says EDF, explaining that it has signed 3,600 contracts, for an annual volume of around 17 TWh annually.
Develop new uses for electricity
However, there remains a situation which was not foreseen: the stagnation of electricity demand (around 400 TWh in France in 2024 as in 2023). It even remains 8% to 10% lower, depending on the month, than it was in 2019. This is linked both to the surge in prices which has pushed customers to review their consumption patterns but also to the improvement of devices. An LED lamp requires four times less electricity than a conventional light bulb, a new refrigerator 15 to 20% less than an old one, etc.
But as new capacities, wind and solar, arrive on the market, selling off any surplus becomes a priority for producers. EDF now estimates that it will be able to meet new needs of around 150 TWh per year, by 2035. “ This is a demand that does not exist in the market today, but which meets the objectives of electrification in order to reduce CO2 emissions », explains Marc Benayoun.
Around 70 TWh would go to transport, in particular the electrification of heavy goods vehicles. Industry would need 60 TWh, notably replacing gas, and 20 TWh would be dedicated to data centers, which are increasingly greedy for electricity, with the development of artificial intelligence. In buildings, however, electricity consumption would be stable, estimates EDF, due in particular to energy efficiency measures and insulation work.
