While olive oil has symbolized an integral part of Morocco’s agricultural and culinary identity for centuries, the year 2024-2025 marks a painful turning point for this vital sector. Faced with an unprecedented crisis, the Kingdom saw its olive oil production fall by 11% compared to last year and by 40% compared to a normal year.
This decline, mainly due to a combination of persistent drought and still insufficient structural management, endangers access to an essential product for Moroccan households and the economic survival of many small producers.
Climate, economy and strategic choices
The dizzying rise in olive oil prices in Morocco illustrates the scale of this crisis. What was once a staple on the tables of Moroccan families is now becoming an inaccessible luxury for many. Testimonies abound in souks and markets where prices are reaching historic records, unsustainably increasing the pressure on consumers’ purchasing power.
The irony is striking: a country historically producing and exporting olive oil now finds itself in a situation where import seems to be the only viable solution to calm an unprecedented price surge. Morocco’s recent decision to import 10,000 tonnes of olive oil from Brazil, a marginal player in the global market for this commodity, raises both economic and diplomatic issues. If the deficit in local olive oil production caused by extreme climatic conditions justifies this choice, the tense political context between Rabat and Tunis offers another, more subtle, interpretation of this decision.
Morocco’s historically robust olive oil production has been hit hard by a persistent drought and prolonged heatwaves in 2024. The yield reached only about 95,000 tonnes, well below national needs. This crisis caused a surge in prices, making olive oil almost unaffordable for many households, with prices exceeding 130 dirhams per liter.
The role of Tunisian economic diplomacy in question
To stabilize the olive oil market, the Moroccan government temporarily suspended customs duties and VAT on imports and diversified its sources of supply, integrating Brazil as a key player among its suppliers. Although Brazil is not a major player in global olive oil exports, the move helped fill part of the deficit while avoiding total dependence on Europe.
The Moroccan decision to favor Brazil to the detriment of Tunisia, the world’s fourth largest exporter of olive oil, was seen as a snub in Tunis. Fathi Ben Khalifa, economic advisor to the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Maritime Fisheries (UTAP), expressed his “astonishment” at this choice, calling into question the ineffectiveness of Tunisian economic diplomacy. According to him, Tunisian embassies and institutions have failed to preserve their traditional markets or open up to new opportunities, particularly with a neighbor like Morocco.
This criticism reveals a broader problem: Tunisia’s lack of a proactive economic strategy to strengthen its trade ties with its regional partners. While Tunisia has the capacity to satisfy Moroccan demand, its inability to seize this opportunity reflects structural and organizational shortcomings.
The Moroccan Sahara at the heart of tensions
However, the real key seems to lie in the deterioration of relations between Rabat and Tunis. Ties between the two countries deteriorated after the reception with great fanfare, in August 2022, of Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario separatists, by the Tunisian president in the pay of Algiers Kaïs Saïed during the Japan-Africa forum. This gesture was perceived by Morocco as a serious attack on its strategic interests, leading to the immediate recall of the Moroccan ambassador. This incident marked a turning point in bilateral relations, and the Moroccan decision to ignore Tunisian olive oil could be seen as an economic response to a diplomatic divide.
Since then, diplomatic relations between the two nations have remained frosty, potentially affecting their economic exchanges. By turning to Brazil, Rabat could seek to send a clear message to Tunis: any deviation from traditional neutrality on the Moroccan Sahara issue will have an economic cost.
The choice of Brazil is therefore not only an economic necessity. It also reflects a diplomatic strategy, where Rabat favors distant but reliable partners over neighbors perceived as politically hostile. This decision shows that commercial relations cannot be dissociated from political considerations, especially in a region where geopolitical tensions remain high.
In short, the importation of Brazilian olive oil by Morocco goes beyond the simple framework of managing a climate crisis. It reveals a balancing act between the economic needs of the Kingdom and its strategic interests. Through this approach, Rabat is sending a message to Tunisia while strengthening its capacity to adapt in an uncertain global context.
A posture which reflects the resilience and firmness of its foreign policy. Suddenly, olive oil becomes much more than a foodstuff: it illustrates the complex interactions between economics and geopolitics, where each sourcing choice carries a meaning that goes beyond the immediate issues.
