One million American adults could suffer from dementia each year by 2060, study finds.

According to a recent study, the number of new cases of dementia is expected to double by 2060, with a predicted million adults in the United States developing the condition each year. This disturbing research was published Monday in the journal Nature Medicine.

The analysis reveals that the risk of developing a form of dementia during life is higher than some previous estimates: after age 55, four in ten adults are at risk of suffering from some form of dementia. This figure is partly explained by the fact that this study is based on decades of careful follow-up, including regular cognitive assessments with a racially diverse group of people, a quarter of whom were African Americans, who are at increased risk of dementia.

“If you start at 55 and live to 95, there are only two possible outcomes: you die before you develop dementia, or you develop dementia before you die,” emphasizes Josef Coreshfounding director of theInstitute for Optimization of Aging at NYU Grossman School of Medicine. He specifies that the risk of developing dementia is around 4% between the ages of 55 and 75, but increases considerably beyond that, particularly after the age of 85.

This study is based on the Study of Cardiovascular Health in Communitiesa long-term project started in 1987 to measure cardiovascular risk, financed by National Institutes of Health. The sample includes more than 15,000 people from Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi and Minnesotareflecting significant geographic and racial diversity. This context made it possible to highlight disparities in risk: African Americans, women, and carriers of a genetic variant called APOE4often associated withAlzheimerappear more likely to develop dementia.

Coresh says the expected increase in dementia cases is mainly a result of the aging population. Over time, more people will reach the age groups where dementia occurs most frequently.

Theo Vosemeritus epidemiologist at theUniversity of Washingtonwho was not involved in the study, points out that dementia is a difficult condition to measure consistently. Standards for recording dementia as a cause of death vary significantly across the world and have evolved over time. There are also differences in the criteria and tests used to diagnose this disease.

“The strength of this study is that it followed people over time, while continuing to look for signs that may or may not confirm a diagnosis of dementia. This is crucial because, being a progressive disease, it can be difficult to determine whether a patient actually has dementia in the early stages of the disease,” Vos adds.

What should provide some comfort is the growing evidence that such a future is not inevitable.

Research commissioned by the newspaper The Lancet last year revealed that 45% of dementia cases worldwide are potentially avoidable. Managing risk factors related to heart disease, such as prevention and control hypertension, cholesterol, obesity and diabetescould also help protect against dementia. Addressing hearing loss and avoiding social isolation are other preventative steps. Avoid the smoking and excessive alcohol consumption could also reduce these risks.

“This tends to reduce the risk at all ages: people live longer without dementia,” concludes Coresh.

María Carrillo, scientific directorate of theAssociation Alzheimerwho was not involved in this study, calls it a real red flag. She says research to be published this summer will rigorously evaluate specific lifestyle changes to determine whether they protect cognitive function in more than 2,000 older adults.

“In the United States, we are facing a very unique situation. The health disparities are quite stark,” says Carrillo. “It can seem overwhelming. However, what I can say is that we are learning a lot about these underlying causes, and many of them can actually be mitigated.”

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