Dear friends,
The flu epidemic raging this winter is enough intense.
Intense enough, in any case, that last week, 87 French hospitals trigger the “white plan”allowing certain non-urgent operations to be moved and staff to be recalled from leave[1].
We are therefore talking almost everywhere in the press about an “exceptionally high” level of hospitalizations.[2].
However, according to city medicine statistics… “ the epidemic is moderate intensity[3]» !
How to explain this paradox?!
Quite simply, and yet no newspaper, television or radio article talks about it.
Because, instead, you are given the eternal refrain: “it’s because vaccination coverage is not sufficient!” »
It is Exactly the speech given last Tuesday[4] by Nicolas Revel, general director of AP-HP (Assistance publique-hospitaux de Paris), who declared, in response to this exceptionally high level of hospitalizations: “ We must put the emphasis back on vaccination, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable people. »
Translation: if there are so many hospitalizations because of the seasonal flu, it’s because you’re not reasonable and you didn’t get vaccinated!
Brief, It’s your fault!
I specify that, although director general of the AP-HP, Nicolas Revel is not not doctor.
In our beautiful country where the illegal practice of medicine is an offense closely monitored by the Council of the Order of Physicians, you may be surprised to see a non-doctor thus directing millions of its fellow citizens to go and get vaccinated.
Nicolas Revel is not a doctor, no: he is a high-ranking civil servant.
He is a pure enarque, passed through the Court of Auditors and former chief of staff of Bertrand Delanoë, François Hollande (in tandem with Emmanuel Macron), Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex[5].
His CV shows that he is 100% in line with the presidential party, that is to say promoter of the pharmaceutical industry; and in this register, the method consists of make the unvaccinated citizen feel guilty.
Yet…
However, the flu vaccine is indeed an “identified” tool in the fight against the virus, every year…
This argument has its utility, but it is specious; firstly we can discuss the absolute effectiveness of anti-flu vaccines, as brilliantly done, with supporting evidence, by a free doctor such as Michel de Lorgeril in a book with a clear title: Flu Vaccines : illusions and disinformation[6].
But, strangely, that’s not the question.
Because the process of blaming Nicolas Revel brandishing the argument of vaccination coverage does not only arise from the Pavlovian reflex: it comes from the smoking.
For two reasons.
The flu vaccine is a tool with extremely variable effectiveness.
For an unstoppable reason: each year, manufacturers are obliged to concoct a “new” vaccine by betting on the strain which will mainly circulate the following winter.
The vaccines currently administered were therefore designed a year ago.
Let’s give Caesar what is Caesar’s: this year, the WHO (which “predicts” the dominant strains of the influenza virus and makes its recommendations) was rather correct in recommending quadrivalent vaccines including the following strains[7] :
- Virus de type A (H1N1): A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09 for vaccines produced in eggs, or A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09 for recombinant vaccines or vaccines produced in cell culture.
- Virus de type A (H3N2): A/Thailand/8/2022 (H3N2) for egg vaccines, or A/Massachusetts/18/2022 (H3N2) for other vaccines.
- Virus de type B (Victoria line): B/Austria/1359417/2021.
- Virus de type B (Yamagata line): B/Phuket/3073/2013
Currently, in France, the main influenza viruses in circulation are:
- Virus A (H1N1)pdm09: this is the most frequently detected virus;
- Virus B/Victoria: also significantly present;
- Virus A (H3N2): circulates actively, although less dominant than the previous two.
However, by encouraging “elderly people” to be vaccinated, Nicolas Revel commits, voluntarily or not I do not know, a remarkable blunder: this year’s flu affects young people more and older people less (from 60 years) as usual.
There is a very simple reason for this, as epidemiologist Bruno Lina explained on Europe 1:
« Anyone born before 1957, the first time she was affected by a virus, it was the virus H1N1. This initial immunity induces particular protection against this type of virus. And conversely, those born after 1957 defended themselves less well against the AH1N1 »[8].
In other words: If we had to encourage a category of population to get vaccinated against the flu, it would not be the “elderly”… but on the contrary people under 58 years old, who are not naturally immune to this flu!!!
A curious “prescription”, therefore, on the part of our enarque.
But by once again focusing everything on the vaccine and the responsibility of the patient, our enarque fulfills its role: it diverts the public’s attention from the real reason for the public hospital’s overload with hospitalizations.
Remember the apparent paradox that I noted at the beginning of this letter: the flu epidemic is of “moderate intensity”, and yet 87 hospitals are obliged to initiate the white plan to cope with the “exceptionally high” number of hospitalizations.”
The explanation?
She is simply arithmetic.
If the public hospital is overwhelmed, it is not because this flu is of incredible intensity – we have seen that this is not the case – but quite simply because the reception capacities of the hospitals have increased. tragically degraded.
Between 2013 and 2023, 43,500 full hospitalization beds have been eliminated[9].
Do you remember, the day after the first year of Covid – 2020 – when the government announced that it was going to reduce efforts on hospitalization capacities?
Well it was, forgive me, madnessbecause in reality After 2020 the pace of elimination of hospital beds accelerated.
In the year 2022 alone, the public hospital lost more than 6,700 full hospitalization beds. Then around 4900 in 2023.
At this stage we must understand one thing: when the State eliminates a full hospitalization bed, it is not “just” eliminating medical equipment: it also removes the nursing staff that goes with it.
However, unsurprisingly since the end of the last decade, healthcare workers have continued to warn about the decline in numbers: this is what has been called the “emergency crisis”, and you yourself have been able to do so. see if you had to go there.
Now ask yourself this question: 87 Should hospitals have initiated this “white plan” for a flu epidemic that is a little more virulent than usual? if these 43500 beds, and the nursing staff that goes with them, had not been eliminated?
In other words, Nicolas Revel’s incitement to vaccination is not just a conditioned reflex that does business for the pharmaceutical industry: it is a smokescreen, guilt-inducing on top of that, masking the planned degradation of our country’s public healthcare service.
This drastic reduction in hospital capacity limits our ability to cope with seasonal epidemic peaks.
Emergency services, already under pressure, are struggling to absorb the influx of patients, leading to delays in treatment and a deterioration in the quality of care.
Furthermore, the government strategy favoring vaccination as the main defense against influenza clearly shows its limits.
Although vaccination is a useful but not miraculous instrument for prevention, it cannot on its own compensate for the structural inadequacies of our health system.
The continued closure of hospital beds and lack of qualified healthcare personnel seriously compromises our ability to respond effectively to health crises.
In these conditions, it is in your best interest to put all the chances on your side to protect yourself and improve your immunity.
This can be achieved through the flu vaccine, if you believe in it.
But I am convinced that this is not enough: only a global immune strategy can allow you to build up a truly effective winter shield.
I got this flu right after the holidays. But my symptoms were mild, in all humility because I have known for a long time what to do to increase my chances of resisting them!
Be well,
Rodolphe
[1] https://www.ledauphine.com/magazine-sante/2025/01/14/epidemie-de-grippe-pourquoi-est-elle-si-severe-cette-annee – “Flu epidemic: why is it so severe this year? », in. The Dauphiné liberatedJanuary 14, 2025
[2] https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/sante/grippe-pour-le-patron-de-l-ap-hp-il-faut-remit-l-accent-sur-la-vaccination_183363 – “Flu: hospitalizations of “an “exceptionally high” level”, in. Sciences & AvenirJanuary 14, 2025
[3] The Dauphiné liberatedart. cit.
[4] Sciences & Avenirart. cit.
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolas_Revel – “Nicolas Revel” (Wikipedia file)
[6] Michel de Lorgeril, Flu Vaccines: Illusions and MisinformationChariot D’or, 2020
[7] https://www.lemoniteurdespharmacies.fr/nouvelles-missions/vaccination/vaccin-antigrippal-2024-2025-sa-composition-devoilee?utm_source=chatgpt.com – Yolande Gauthier, “Anti-flu vaccine 2024-2025: its composition revealed” , in. The Pharmacy MonitorFebruary 27, 2024
[8] https://www.europe1.fr/sante/grippe-2025-presente-sur-tout-le-territoire-pourquoi-lepidemie-touche-tout-particulierement-les-jeunes-238378 – Yasmina Kattou, “Grippe 2025: present throughout the country, why is the epidemic particularly affecting young people? », in. Europe 1January 8, 2025
[9] https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/publications-communique-de-presse/etudes-et-resultats/241031_ER_SAE-2023 – Bénédicte Boiguérin, “In 2023, the drop in the number of beds and the increase in the number places continue – First results of the administrative reduction in the annual statistics of health establishments (SAE) 2023”, October 31, 2024
