According to a cross-sectional study based on 2022 data and conducted by Australian and international researchers, cancer cases are expected to increase by 77% (35.3 million compared to 20 million in 2022) and cancer-related deaths by 90%. here to 2050. The team used data on 36 types of cancer in 185 countries to predict how incidence and mortality rates will change over the coming decades.
The results show notable disparities based on HDI (Human Development Index), geographic regions, age and gender. Disparities which are expected to continue to increase by 2050 and which are notably linked to the continued efforts focused on the Covid-19 pandemic, the persistence of armed conflicts, the evolution of priorities in terms of financing health care and the cost of living crisis.
Low-income countries will be hardest hit
While the entire world is affected by changes in the number of cases and deaths, low-income countries are most at risk. While the progression is modest in high HDI countries (+ 42% for cancer cases and 57% for cancer deaths), the figures are multiplied by three in low HDI countries with 142% progression for cases of cancer and 146% for deaths.
The study also points to a notable difference between men and women, although an upward trend in cancer cases and deaths is expected for both sexes between 2022 and 2050. The number of cases predicted among women in 2050 is 16.3 million, an increase of 68.5% from 9.7. While the number of cancer deaths among men is expected to reach 10.5 million in 2050, an increase of 93.2% compared to 2022.
What solutions can be found to slow down this development?
Looking at 2022 data, researchers say Australia has the highest cancer survival rate among high-income countries, and other countries could reduce their cancer death rates in the future by drawing on aspects of the Australian health care system.
The study also proposes a series of measures that could help counter these figures and improve clinical outcomes: strengthening access to and quality of health care, including universal coverage, improving early diagnosis and investing massively in research to improve the treatment and care of cancer.
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