99 days. After the dissolution of the National Assembly, a caretaker government, a period of inaction is about to end with the expected announcement of the Barnier I government by the end of the week. Despite the New Popular Front (NFP) coming out on top in the legislative elections, it was Michel Barnier of the Republicans (5.41% in the second round of voting and 47 elected deputies) who was appointed by Emmanuel Macron as Prime Minister on Thursday, September 5.
A choice made by the President of the Republic that was widely criticized on the left, but which was received more benevolently by the National Rally. For the tenant of the Élysée, the objective is simple: not to see the new government censured by a National Assembly divided into three blocs, as could have happened with Lucie Castet, the NFP candidate.
“a week is seven days”
Since his arrival at Matignon on Thursday, September 5, Michel Barnier has consulted extensively within the ranks of the right and the presidential camp and has promised that the composition of his government will be revealed “this week.” And “a week is seven days,” he told journalists. A sign that France could well wait until Sunday evening before knowing the government.
The consultations must continue in the coming days. This Tuesday, it is the communists who will be received by the former European commissioner. But, unless there is a huge turnaround, an entry into the government of Fabien Roussel or his comrades seems impossible, so divergent are the programs of the PCF and the Republicans.
Will ministers of “openness” be appointed, as Nicolas Sarkozy did in 2007 in François Fillon’s government? Not sure. Even the figures of the right wing of the PS, like François Hollande, do not want to see a left-wing leader join Michel Barnier.
“When a government is going to be right-wing, with right-wing policies, supported by the extreme right, how do you expect men and women from the left to participate in it?” asked the former President of the Republic a few days ago, who promised to vote for censure in the National Assembly.
The right ready to participate, the MoDem warns
For Les Républicains, the opportunity has never been better to return to business, after new unprecedented electoral failures (4.78% in the first round of the presidential election in 2022, 6.57% in the first round of the legislative elections in 2024).
“We are ready to participate in a government, but we must be attentive to the guarantees for a real right-wing policy on the subjects that we consider fundamental,” warned Laurent Wauquiez during the parliamentary days of his group in Savoie.
The last government led by a member of the Republicans was that of François Fillon, between 2010 and 2012. But in 2023, the Gaullist party published the list of its “counter-government”. It already included Michel Barnier, in a position of “special advisor to the President of the Republic” to follow questions relating to Foreign Affairs.
Will this list inspire the former European Commissioner? Valérie Boyer was Minister of the Family, Nadine Morano was in charge of Immigration and François-Noël Buffet in charge of Justice. The very right-wing Jacqueline Eustache-Brinio took on a position in charge of “Identity, secularism and republican values”.
“When you only have 47 deputies, you can’t impose your policy,” warned the president of the MoDem group Marc Fesneau this Sunday, addressing the Republicans. “We need a government balance that takes into account the reality of the National Assembly. But LR, with its 47 deputies, is behaving in the same way as the New Popular Front, which, this summer, believed that it could impose its policy even if it only had 193 votes,” he argues.
On BFMTV, MoDem leader François Bayrou warned that his party will not participate in an LR government.
The RN “will wait for the general policy speech”
As for the RN, it does not plan to censor the Barnier government immediately. “We will wait for the general policy speech, then the budget,” Philippe Ballard, spokesperson for Marine Le Pen’s party, repeated on BFMTV. Nor to join the executive: “We are not Barnier-compatible.”
Michel Barnier will not have a completely free hand to compose his government. Because the constitution of the Fifth Republic is rather clear: “On the proposal of the Prime Minister, [le président de la République] appoints the other members of the Government and terminates their functions”. Emmanuel Macron will therefore be able to veto the ministers proposed by Michel Barnier, in particular on key positions (Armed Forces, Economy, International Affairs, Interior, etc.).
Whether his team is named this Monday or by Sunday, the Matignon tenant will have to find a way, in the National Assembly, to avoid a motion of censure that will be tabled at the start of the parliamentary session. Before redoubling his efforts to pass a budget whose debate risks being intense, since none of the three blocs has a majority on its own.
- BFMTV.com
