2024 employment report: “We are in a less vigorous labor market,” according to Desjardins

«We are really no longer in a situation of generalized labor shortage»estimates the senior economist at Desjardins. While Montreal welcomes nearly 60% of new arrivals and population growth approached 2.3% this year in Quebec, employment has not followed, with a timid jump of 0.5%.

• Also read: Not always easy to find a job for young people: “I have no answers”

• Also read: The new unemployed: young people and immigrants struggle to find work

“We are in a less vigorous labor market which does not generate enough jobs to absorb population growth,” observed in an interview with Journal Florence Jean-Jacobs, senior economist at Desjardins. The year [2024] is marked by this imbalance,” she adds.

“Quebec is still doing better than the rest of the country, with unemployment here of 5.7% in October. “It’s one point less than in Ontario, at 6.8%,” she adds.

As for November, the unemployment rate reached 5.9% (+0.2% compared to October), according to Statistics Canada’s Labor Force Survey.

No more widespread shortage

According to Florence Jean-Jacobs, “the general shortage is no longer there”. There have been significant job losses in accommodation, retail and restaurants.

“These are sectors in which people cut back during economic downturns when their budgets are tight,” she illustrates.

On the other hand, in construction, demand always exceeds supply due to the need for residential housing and public and private infrastructure.

“There were 2.8% vacancies in September in Quebec. It was around 6% in June 2022. There was really a significant contrast,” she mentions.

Market relaxation

For Emna Braham, CEO of the Institut du Québec (IDQ), there is a slackening of the labor market which began in 2023 and which continued in 2024.

“Employers are a little less greedy when it comes to hiring. There are more workers available. We have seen the unemployment rate increase,” she analyzes.

As The Journal wrote this year, it is especially young people and immigrants who are affected by the pangs of unemployment.

“Usually, in economic downturns, we have layoffs. What we see now are young people and immigrants who have had more difficulty finding their first job,” notes Emna Braham of the IDQ.

The new limitations on temporary foreign workers have caused a lot of ink to be spilled in 2024, while manufacturers have fired bullets against the federal government, which is depriving them of them at the worst time. Factory closures and moves have even been considered by bosses who have run out of patience.

Accelerated training

Au JournalMarc Leclerc, general director of the Union of Heavy Machinery Operators of the FTQ, denounces accelerated training in construction.

“Entrepreneurs were reluctant to hire these graduates. The machinery is often worth more than half a million dollars. They hesitated to let them,” he maintains.

“It did not solve the problem of entrepreneurs or labor shortages,” he denounces.

Rather than shortening the training, the trade unionist even thinks that it should be extended.

“There were some who went there willingly. We did not give them the tools,” he concludes.

1) Twice as much unemployment among young people and immigrants

In 2024, The Journal was able to see to what extent young graduates and new immigrants were affected by unemployment. Last August, the latter had unemployment rates of 14.5% and 12.3%, double the national rate in Quebec, at 5.7%. The rate of 14.5% among 15 to 24 year olds was the highest since 2012 (excluding the pandemic), according to Statistics Canada. “We have young professionals who left university or CEGEP last spring and who still do not have a job,” shared Cathy Lepage, general director at Carrefour jeunesse-emploi Roussillon.

2) $300 million programs without indicators

In recent months, The Journal revealed that Quebec will never know if its flagship return-to-work courses, which cost nearly $300 million in public funds, have borne fruit or not. At the time, the Quebec Public and Parapublic Service Union (SFPQ) compared the administration of these programs internally as a real “open bar”. “It is worrying to see that the government is not learning from its mistakes and will continue on the same path with training in the field of construction trades,” warned the general president of the SFPQ, Christian Daigle.

3) Difficult to find jobs for boys

Last summer, data from Statistics Canada showed that young men (15-24 years old) have more difficulty finding a job than young women of the same age. The unemployment rate is 12.4% for men, compared to 9.8% for women. Simon Savard, deputy director and principal economist at the IDQ, observed that in history, this had not always been the case. “In recent years, we have seen fairly significant employment growth in the public sector and in health, in particular, and women are more represented,” he says.

4) Jobs threatened by artificial intelligence

More than 4.7 million jobs, or one in four professions in the country, are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence by 2030, as reported The Journal in mid-July. Office work, legal, architecture and engineering, life sciences, business, social services, management, sales…many sectors will be exposed to automation, according to Goldman Sachs. Players from the world of music, cinema, humor and advertising are concerned. Within a TV5 subsidiary, around thirty positions were cut because of the technological boom.

5) Quebecers change jobs for the money

Last April, a survey revealed that 68% of Quebecers were afraid of losing their money if a recession occurred. Another survey showed that 20% of those who change jobs do so for the money. In recent months, The Journal told several stories of workers forced to find more than one job to make ends meet. Even with a good salary, many decide to find a second income. A mother of three young children told us about swiping her credit cards to get the debt out of the water.

6) Risky jobs in video games

The announced reductions in several Quebec tax credits will hurt good jobs in video games, cinema and TV, to the point where some fear that Quebec will be outdone by Ontario with its juicy tax incentives. In the video game field, small studios will lose 46% and 68% of their tax credits within four years, denounces the Quebec Video Game Guild. In cinema and television, the industry could have to bleed 67% of its workforce, or 5,400 jobs, according to the Quebec Cinema and Television Bureau.

Key figures for 2024

• Unemployment rate: 5.3% on average (between January and October 2024) (4.5% in 2023)
• Jobs created: +24,000 jobs (between January and October 2024) (+19,800 between January 2023 and January 2024)
• Full time: +58,600 (between January and October 2024) (+200 between January 2023 and January 2024)
• Part-time: -34,500 (between January and October 2024) (+19,600 between January 2023 and January 2024)

(Source: Statistics Canada and Institut du Québec)