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The BFM Bourse analysis team would first like to send its best wishes for the coming year to its entire stock market community.
Without any support from transaction volumes on 12/31 – the New Year’s Eve session was truncated – the CAC index (+0.92%) finally managed to embellish a little a disappointing annual report (-2. 15%). The disappointment comes from the comparison with the DAX (+18.85%) while Germany is experiencing structural difficulties in its usual engine of wealth creation (industry), and it is entering a phase of political instability as in France.
The German flagship index was able to count on its star stocks such as the industrial Siemens Energy which gained 320% over the whole of 2024, benefiting from the electrification of the economy, a megatrend. This is a nice stock market revenge for the German group whose shares had suffered in 2023, with a fall of more than 30%. The arms manufacturer Rheinmetall (+114%) and the professional software specialist SAP (+69%), – the largest capitalization on the German Stock Exchange – complete this brilliant podium.
So let’s move on to 2025! Do we take the damp sponge and erase the blackboard? Certainly not! The index approaches 2025 with a historical record, and the short-term situation will still remain fragile. In the meantime, it is still time for quantitative assessments, which reflect the poor performance of luxury in 2024.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Tuesday’s session slightly down, like the Dow Jones (-0.07%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.90%). . The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, finished stable at 5,881 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,0360$. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around 71,70$.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, final manufacturing PMI data in the Euro Zone this morning and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the short term, the “play” produced by the index in contact with an old gap (19/12) has little meaning given the volumes observed. We are neither opting for a clear ebb under this gap, nor for emancipation. The feeling is as neutral as it is calm on this first session of the year.
PREVISION
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7465.00 points.
PREVISION
Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7465.00 points.
Hourly graph
Graph created from the software Prorealtime
Daily Data Chart
Graph created from the software Prorealtime
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