Between 2018 and 2023, France's trade surplus with the United Kingdom fell by almost 20%, according to a report from the Directorate General of Customs. This decline, largely attributed to Brexit, illustrates the upheavals in trade between the two countries, in a context where the United Kingdom is redefining its partnerships on a global scale.
A falling trade balance after Brexit
The trade balance between France and the United Kingdom has fallen by 2.5 billion euros in five years, from 12.1 billion euros in 2018 to 9.6 billion euros in 2023. Despite this 20% drop, the United Kingdom remains France's largest surplus trading partner, according to French customs data. This decrease is mainly linked to a change in the accounting of trade flows induced by the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union.
With Brexit, part of British imports to the EU now pass through France to be “cleared” before reaching other European countries. These movements, called “quasi-transit flows”, were not taken into account before the United Kingdom left the European customs territory in 2021. This phenomenon thus artificially increased French imports of British products (+5, 5 billion euros), while exports only increased by 3 billion euros over the period.
The agri-food sector is one of the most affected by this development. Rising imports of British products such as lamb, salmon and cheddar have weighed heavily on the industry's trade balance. Manufactured goods, particularly jewelry and jewelry, also suffered. Conversely, the transport and machinery sectors held up well thanks to French exports of planes, turbojets and vehicles.
British reorientation towards the rest of the world
At the same time, the United Kingdom has profoundly changed its trade priorities, turning more towards partners outside the European Union. In five years, the EU's share of British imports fell from 52% to 40%, to the benefit of China and the United States, which saw their shares increase from 9% to 13% and 9% respectively. % to 12%. This strategic reorientation reflects London's desire to diversify its trade after Brexit, a movement which is to the detriment of commercial relations with its European neighbors.
This drop in the French trade surplus illustrates the economic impacts of Brexit on bilateral relations. While the United Kingdom seeks new partnerships, France will have to adjust its strategies to maintain dynamic trade with its historic neighbor.
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