It’s a fact, for twenty years, people no longer die on January 3. It’s even the deadliest day of the year.
This Friday is the deadliest day of the year. January 3 has statistically been, for around twenty years, the day when the most people die in France with an average of 1,900 deaths, compared to 1,600 over the entire period, according to data from INSEE (the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies).
“In the countries of the northern hemisphere, mortality from all causes peaks at the beginning of January,” observes Vincent Pradeau, president of the National Union of Cardiologists, for BFMTV.com. An excess mortality compared to the previous month of around 20% for men, a little less for women.
How to explain this phenomenon? “No hypothesis has been formally demonstrated but we have strong correlations,” points out cardiologist Vincent Pradeau. Several factors could indeed come into play.
The end of the end of year break
First of all, January 3 is a day after the end of year holidays. “The desire to spend these holidays with loved ones, as well as the desire to reach a new year could delay the occurrence of the death of people at the end of life and partly explain this peak,” analyzes INSEE.
Another explanation: after the break during the end-of-year holidays, the surgical services resume their usual activity. “This period corresponds to a resumption of scheduled surgical operations” which can be the cause of medical complications.
For comparison, August 15 is the least deadly day of the year with 1,410 deaths recorded on average. Deaths on public holidays are in fact less frequent, which can be explained in particular by the lower number of hospital care and scheduled interventions. Christmas Day, for example, records a -2% lower mortality compared to the three preceding and following days.
Holiday excesses
Overall, summers are less deadly than winters. From mid-April to mid-November, the number of deaths is below average. While the months of December, January and February respectively experience excess mortality of +9%, +14% and +12%, in particular due to the circulation of seasonal viruses.
Some 48,100 people died in August 2024, compared to 63,100 the previous January. Or 15,000 additional deaths in this first month of last year, INSEE still counts.
Another factor that could explain this excess mortality on January 3 is the end-of-year celebrations and their share of cold meats, seafood and cheeses. “It’s cold (the cold forces the heart to pump harder and faster, which induces vasoconstriction and an increase in blood pressure, Editor’s note), we move less and we eat more fatty and salty products, risk factors of cardiac decompensation”, explains Vincent Pradeau.
Eating excesses often associated with greater alcohol consumption.
“It is a fact, alcohol increases heart rhythm disorders, in particular atrial fibrillation which can lead to the formation of blood clots,” notes the specialist.
“Whether it’s December 25 or 31, we consult”
Vincent Pradeau also formulates another explanation for this excess mortality: a relaxation in taking treatments and less recourse to care during the holidays. “This is what I call January 2 syndrome. A person who has symptoms postpones seeing people until later so as not to spoil the holidays.”
This cardiologist nevertheless recognizes particular difficulties linked to this time of year and disruptions in the usual conditions of medical follow-up. Whether it is the visit of the replacement nurse at home or the attending physician on vacation.
“But we do not sweep under the rug a sudden loss of vision in one eye, speech or use of an arm even if it comes back,” warns Vincent Pradeau, who calls for moderation during the holidays.
“And whether it is December 25 or 31, if we have symptoms, we consult,” he insists.
If you experience chest pain, palpitations, trouble seeing or speaking, or unusual shortness of breath, call 15 or the 112 in a member country of the European Union, even if symptoms improve within a few minutes.
