“When the facts change, I change my mind” : we must resolve and follow the maxim of the English economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), while the announced decline in Wall Street following the election of Donald Trump did not take place . Of course, there were a thousand arguments, the promised increase in customs duties, the announced expulsion of migrants which will lead to a labor shortage, and the excessive deficits likely to revive inflation. But this is all long term. In the meantime, Wall Street continues to soar since the election (5% for large S&P 500 companies and 7% for Nasdaq technology stocks), and the bond market, which seemed to give contrary signs – rates rose when they should have fallen – ended up agreeing: Trump is good, if not for the economy, at least for the stock market. Investors poured 140 billion dollars (132 billion euros) into buying American stocks: this is the “ Trump Bump ».
Why don't the markets follow the gloomy analyzes of many economists? Because they are convinced that the sport practiced by Trump is more like wrestling than boxing, more cheating than real fighting. Certainly, the elected president announced mass expulsions, but the resources of the federal agency responsible for the borders, which carried out 80,000 expulsions per year under his first mandate, do not allow it to process millions of cases. Certainly, he promised customs duties of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, but this is immediately to stage the supposed capitulation of the leaders of these two countries.
Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Robert Lighthizer, the man who pushed Donald Trump into the trade war
Read later
He also announced 10% additional duties on China, but isn't that a way of postponing the promised 60%? Moreover, the economic team does not include in its ranks the very protectionist Robert Lighthizer, who had led the trade negotiations during his first mandate, but a series of Wall Street veterans, who are obsessed with not lowering prices. financial markets. In finance, at the Security Exchange Commission (SEC, the market regulator), at the energy agency, at the environment agency, we are preparing to detax and deregulate.
Curious national union
Donald Trump wants to reduce corporate taxes from 21% to 15% and should have the majority to do so. He wants to liberalize the financial markets, which have been severely constrained since the great bankruptcy of 2008. He is a big supporter of cryptocurrencies, and the appointment to the SEC of one of their defenders, Paul Atkins, should accelerate the inflation of the bitcoin bubble. , whose value exceeded $100,000. Donald Trump will encourage hydrocarbon drilling. Brief, it's euphoria.
You have 32.94% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
