Remaining favorable to risky assets in 2025

US stocks hit new highs last week.

Main points

• Transformation in progress – Structural changes, such as artificial intelligence (AI), are redefining economies. We maintain a pro-risk stance and increase our overweight in US equities as the beneficiaries of these trends diversify.
• Market context – US stocks hit new highs last week. November U.S. employment figures showed wage growth above the level needed for inflation to converge toward the Fed’s target.
• Week Ahead – We expect the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points this week. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to indicate continued services inflation, supported by solid wage growth.

This year has confirmed that we are not in a classic economic cycle. Instead, mega-forces – major structural changes like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) – are transforming economies and altering their long-term trajectories. This requires a new investment approach: more dynamism, focusing more on themes and less on large asset classes. In our outlook for 2025, we remain favorable to risk and strengthen our overweighting in American equities, while the AI ​​theme unfolds. However, we remain prepared to reduce risk if necessary.

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