what if 2024 was the year of all possibilities for first-time buyers?

In 2024, the real estate market looks promising, marked by dynamic supply and changing behavior borrowers, to be found in the half-yearly balance sheet Empruntis of the real estate market. On the supply side, the banks, reaffirming their confidence, facilitate access to credit with anticipated rate cuts. However, the High Financial Stability Council (HCSF) still poses challenges, restricting access to credit despite the financial capabilities of borrowers.

Borrowing rates noted on 06/26/2024

Offer: more accessible credit and strengthened purchasing power

The real estate market in 2024 shows encouraging signs on the supply side. Banks, although cautious, are once again willing to grant credit. They even anticipated rate cuts to attract borrowers from the start of the year. This allows potential buyers to benefit from more favorable financing conditions.

In parallel, the purchasing power of borrowers improves, with an average increase of 5% of the latter. This gain in purchasing power can be reinforced by file-by-file negotiations, particularly when there is strong competition between banks, and thanks to subsidized loans specially put in place for this period.

Borrowers: the attraction for veterans and the rise of first-time buyers

As for borrowers, the shortage of new properties continues to favor purchasing old goods. This trend is strengthening, with a notable increase in the share of old properties requiring work (25% > 28%). In addition, young buyers, particularly those under 30, are particularly active on the market, with an increase of 5 points in their presence in 2024 (23% > 28%).

First-time buyers also see their proportion increase (+2.31%), while second-time buyers remain more reserved (19.23% in 2024). Investors, for their part, are making a timid return. They are often younger and less fortunate, but their interest in real estate as a wealth building tool remains strong.

Project leaders: a new dynamic for the old and the works

For project leaders, the attraction for old properties is confirmed to the detriment of new individual houses. However, when new homes are available, they still manage to attract buyers. The amount of work planned for old properties increases significantly (+ 37%)highlighting a new dynamic in the market.

Project leaders are either younger or more affluent. For the former, necessity takes precedence and conditions must not slow down their projects. For the latter, real estate continues to be attractive despite market conditions, indicating a growing social and generational divide.

Dissolution: what impacts on the market?

Political events, such as the recent dissolution of the National Assembly, and their impacts on the economy and more particularly on the Treasury Assimilable Obligation (OAT), add uncertainty to real estate loan rates. In fact, theOAT stability is crucial for credit ratesand the election results will determine whether this tension will persist, potentially affecting credit rates which have been falling for six months.

Additionally, a new National Assembly could change housing policies. Texts under study are currently suspended, and elections could redefine housing priorities. The policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) also remains uncertain. After an expected first drop, the next actions will depend on the evolution of inflation and the results of the European elections.

What next for the end of the year ?

The end of 2024 is expected to be a tense one for real estate credit. The summer, marked by the legislative elections and the Olympic Games, could be calmer, concentrating the banks’ efforts for the start of the school year. Banks should remain accommodating, supporting purchasing power with boosted loans, provided that the cost of money does not increase.

The stability or slight fall in prices in many sectors, coupled with the possible stability of rates, could encourage wait-and-see buyers. Bargaining power remains favorable to buyers thanks to the presence of constrained sellers. Thus, those with means could benefit from good opportunities on the real estate market.