” So far, so good. » This could have been the title of the press release that the European Commission published on Friday, November 15, to present its new economic forecasts. Because if the experts of the community executive are counting on an improvement in the economic situation in Europe, they warn at the same time that the risks weighing on these prospects are more and more numerous.
As it stands, therefore, the Commission forecasts that growth within the European Union (EU) will increase from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025, and to 1.8% in 2026. Within of the euro zone, the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) should reach 0.8% this year, before rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. This is better, but we cannot not yet talk about sustained activity.
The EU’s three largest economies – Germany, France, Italy – continue to do worse than the European average, with respectively – 0.1%, 1.1% and 0.7% for 2024, when members more in the east, with Poland in the lead (3%), are doing much better. As for the five countries – Germany, Austria, Estonia, Finland and Ireland – which are in recession in 2024, they are expected to return to growth in 2025.
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This renewed activity is explained, according to the Commission, by a gradual recovery in consumption and investments, against a backdrop of falling inflation and interest rates. Still at 5.4% within the euro zone in 2023, the price index is expected to fall to 2.4% this year, 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
Many hazards
Despite the announcements of factory closures at the end of October and the beginning of November – Volkswagen in Germany or Michelin in France – the Commission predicts that the labor market, which has resisted the multiple crises that the Europe in recent years will remain buoyant. In this context, the unemployment rate is expected to fall further in 2025, to 5.9% in the EU (compared to 6.1% in 2024) and 6.3% in the monetary union (6.5%). , before stabilizing.
On the public finance side too, the landscape should improve: the budget deficit of euro zone countries should reach on average 3% of GDP in 2024, 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. material, despite its announced efforts to consolidate its public finances, France would remain the worst performer in the euro zone, with a negative balance of 6.2% of national wealth this year, 5.3% in 2025 and 5.4 % in 2026.
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