11:00 a.m. ▪
5
min reading ▪ by
Luc Jose A.
As the end of the year approaches, a major event could transform the Bitcoin ecosystem and intensify debates around its future: the imminent expiration of nearly $11.8 billion in options on Bitcoin. Scheduled for December 27, this deadline could cause spectacular movements in the markets, with the stated objective of pushing Bitcoin past the symbolic threshold of $100,000. But while the largely dominant call options signal marked optimism, the tension remains palpable between bullish and bearish investors, each keen to position their influence before this critical deadline.
A boiling Bitcoin options market
Bitcoin options, with their scheduled expiration on December 27, are currently attracting investor attention, representing a potential game-changer for the crypto market. Indeed, with a notable increase of 29% in Bitcoin since October, purchase options (calls) dominate, with an amount of 7.9 billion dollars, while put options amount to 3 .92 billion dollars. This gap shows a clear predominance of bullish expectations. Deribit, the leading platform in this field with 74% market share, is followed by CME and Binance, with respectively 10.3% each, which confirms a firmly anchored market distribution. The bulls are in a strong position, but volatility remains a risk until the expiration date.
As the date of December 27 approaches, the influence of these options on the price of Bitcoin becomes more and more palpable. If Bitcoin remains around $90,000 at expiration, only $96 million in put options will remain active, the others will be inoperative above this threshold. This configuration reflects increasing pressure for the price to remain high, with short positions losing their influence to the benefit of buyers, which reinforces Bitcoin's upside potential for the end of the year.
Towards ambitious, but uncertain price scenarios
Faced with this tense environment, several price scenarios are emerging, each influenced by the structure of current options. If Bitcoin is between $75,000 and $80,000 at expiration, calls would far outperform puts with a value of $1.85 billion, leaving bullish investors with a clear lead. With a threshold between $85,000 and $90,000, the difference between call and put options would be even more marked, with $3.28 billion in favor of the bulls. This imbalance between call and put options shows strong bullish anticipation.
However, the potential impact of the bears' strategic choices cannot be overlooked. The latter could try to keep Bitcoin below $75,000 to limit their losses, while optimistic investors seek to push the price beyond $90,000 to maximize their gains. Beyond the immediate issue, this deadline could set new milestones for Bitcoin in 2025, especially as the American regulatory environment evolves with the arrival of new political figures favorable to cryptos. This situation opens up prospects that could strengthen the role of Bitcoin in the overall economic landscape, with potential consequences on the long-term strategy of institutions and investors.
The expiration of these Bitcoin options at the end of the year could therefore constitute a major catalyst, and influence the immediate price of the asset, but also its trajectory for the months to come. While the bulls see this deadline as a unique opportunity to cross the symbolic milestone of $100,000, the bears are redoubling their efforts to limit the rise and protect their positions. If this position battle intensifies as the deadline approaches, the fallout from this event could reverberate beyond December, and set new standards for Bitcoin investing.
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Luc Jose A.
A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I took the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this ongoing revolution.
