On November 13, 2024, the Electricity Transmission Network (RTE) published the most optimistic forecasts in the last ten years regarding the security of electricity supply for the winter of 2024-2025. After years marked by tensions on the network, France can take a breather.
Controlled consumption and a strengthened energy mix
The situation is under control. Since 2022, consumption has fallen, proof of the effort and commitment of the French towards energy sobriety, as Agnès Pannier-Runacher, Minister of Ecological Transition, welcomed in September 2023. But her enthusiasm seemed somewhat – deliberately – omitting that this sobriety was mainly imposed on households who saw, day after day, their energy bill rise… Regardless, in 2024, overall consumption has been reduced by 6% compared to the period 2014-2019, according to the national network manager RTE.
This trend marks a plateau after years of decline. An observation which fuels RTE's optimism, and which is also supported by a increased production capacity thanks to the nuclear fleet, which was able to provide 47 gigawatts (GW) of electricity in November, or 9 GW more than in 2023. RTE even anticipates atomic production of 50 GW by month of January 2025.
Renewable energies follow this dynamic. Hydroelectric production, in fact, has reached records, with an increase of almost 40% compared to 2023. The same goes for wind and solar power, with the entry into service of offshore parks such as those of Fécamp and Saint-Brieuc.
Towards record electricity exports
Another significant point highlighted by the RTE: France should once again assert itself as a net exporter of electricity. With electricity production projected at 85 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024 by the RTE (and 90 TWh for EDF), this could exceed its 2002 record which was set at 77 TWh. Notwithstanding, the question of the profitability of these exports persists, especially since the development costs and those intended for the construction of new infrastructures, in particular the connection of production from renewable sources to the national network, are essentially the responsibility of France (around 100 to 150 billion euros by 2035-2040).
French producers, for their part, are trying, as much as possible, to maximize market opportunities, as evidenced by the one-off restart of the Saint-Avold coal power plant, announced Tuesday November 12, 2024. At the same time, the RTE affirms that gas stocks are full and gas power plants are capable of ensuring a certain balance at European level. No electricity or gas cut in sight therefore, even if the RTE reminds that zero risk does not exist.
