A climate skeptic returns to the White House. During his victorious presidential campaign against Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump promised to reverse subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, to “drill at all costs” and exit the Paris agreement again. When he takes office in January, the president-elect will find on his (oval) desk the decrees prepared by his transition team, one of which, once signed, will formalize the divorce between the United States and the 194 other signatory parties, all committed to a voluntary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
As the 29th UN Conference on Climate Change, COP29, is due to open on Monday, November 11, in Baku (Azerbaijan), will the announced American disengagement compromise the smooth running of the negotiations? This distancing from Washington, considered inevitable, should reshuffle the cards of climate diplomacy: a tool certainly contested, but particularly valuable for combating a peril without borders.
A at COP29, “the United States was supposed to take several measures”, laments Tom Rivett-Carnac, specialist in climate political strategies, in the Outrage+Optimism podcast. “Under a Harris administration, a new national commitment [de baisse des émissions] was to be taken in the first quarter of next year” as well as,“in theory, a new collective objective in terms of financing” of the fight against global warming. At the microphone of the podcast he co-hosts, he still laments seeing, with the election of Donald Trump, disappear “the possibility of discussions between the United States and China” who would have “sent a signal to the world to raise their ambitions.”
Instead“the new Trump administration will pulverize global climate diplomacy with a wrecking ball”, alert in The Guardian the policy director of the NGO Union of Concerned Scientists, Rachel Cleetus. Even those who boast “resilience” of the Paris agreement, already tested by a first American withdrawal between 2017 and 2022, during the first Trump term, fear that global action in favor of the climate will take a hit, after the expected American withdrawal. Among these voices, the economist and diplomat Laurence Tubiana. In 2024, “the global context is more conducive to seeing other countries follow it”she emphasizes in Liberation.
By joining Iran, Yemen and Libya in the list of non-signatory countries, the United States could give ideas to Argentina, led by a far-right populist climate skeptic, Javier Milei, as well as to Venezuela , an oil state under the control of a left-wing authoritarian regime, she illustrates. If she does not perceive at this stage any secessionist inclination among other States, Lola Vallejo, of the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations, notes that “the very clear victory of Donald Trump creates a very significant climate of uncertainty over the negotiations” of COP29, dedicated to the issue of finance.
“The fact that all countries are paralyzed by the Trump administration’s announcement is a significant risk and it will be very negative.”
Lola Vallejo, Iddri climate advisorat franceinfo
Another fear: that this American withdrawal will condemn the objective of the Paris agreement – to keep the rise in average global temperatures below 1.5°C – and will therefore undermine the credibility of the diplomatic effort. In March, the specialized media Carbon Brief estimated that a second term for the Republican would lead to the emission of several billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 compared to the continuation of the policies of Democrat Joe Biden. The abandonment by the United States of its objectives – set at around -50% of these emissions compared to 2005 by 2030 – would be all the more penalizing for the entire planet as the country is the largest historic emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and is among the largest producers of oil and gas.
Moreover, in 2001, the United States’ refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol dealt a fatal blow to this first diplomatic attempt to involve the international community in the fight against global warming.
Conversely, Brendan Guy, from the American NGO Natural Resources Defense Councilbelieves that an American exit from the Paris agreement could motivate other countries to accelerate the pace. “We expect a resounding global recommitment to the goals of the Paris Agreement…to isolate the Trump administration and continue global progress“, he tells franceinfo. The probable disengagement of the United States is undoubtedly bad news “for those of us who believe in international collaboration and multilateral efforts”, underlines the former executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, in her podcast dedicated to climate. But what matters, she continues, “it’s looking at what China is going to do.”
Beijing “really wants to be part of the multilateral structure and be recognized as a leader, if not THE leader, at least of developing countries”continues the diplomat. Under these conditions, the American decision “opens up an incredible opportunity” for the Asian superpower, which announced, two days after the election of Donald Trump, that it would adopt an ambitious energy law with a view to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
“By leaving the Paris agreement, the United States will naturally lose its influence on the creation of international climate rules,” confirms Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “This is happening at their expense,” he adds, during a conference organized by the specialist media Carbon Brief. Alongside him, Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think tank, agrees: “What we expect in Baku and then, is to see the rest of the world demonstrate that countries are moving forward together, with or without the Trump administration.“
“We see that China is winning the energy transition race, but this is only a gigantic loss if we look at it from the point of view of American citizens. (…) Other powers will emerge in clean technologies and energies.”
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africaduring a conference organized by the specialized media Carbon Brief
“The Paris agreement is holding in particular because the European Union and China are committed to it, and many American economic players, even among Trump’s supporters, are already developing technologies for a decarbonized world,” notes for his part the director of Iddri, Sébastien Treyer. The International Energy Agency also anticipated in its latest report “a peak in demand for all fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) by the end of the decade”, noting “a peak and weakening of growth in global oil demand”.
Sébastien Treyer fears, however, that a tightening of the trade conflict between China and the United States, which Donald Trump is threatening to reopen, will penalize Europe and especially the most vulnerable countries. “It will therefore be all the more important to close ranks between countries for which cooperation is vital.”
“No matter what Trump says, whatever happens, the transition to clean energy is inevitable in the United States”assures Gina McCarthy, Joe Biden’s national climate advisor and member of the America is All In initiative, created in 2017 to bring together American actors keen to act despite the first withdrawal from the Paris agreement . “Our coalition is larger, more bipartisan, better organized and fully prepared to deliver climate solutions, boost local economies and advance climate ambitions”she continues in The Guardian.
When the election of Donald Trump was announced, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, even considered canceling his plans in order to go to COP29 to assure the rest of the world of his state’s commitment to climate, but he changed his mind, reports Politico in its Saturday newsletter.
