Jean-Michel Valantin is a geopolitist, doctor and researcher in strategic studies and defense sociology at Ehess, and author in particular of Geopolitics of a disordered planet (ed. Seuil, 2017).
Reporterre — Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States. What is your reaction ?
Jean-Michel Valantin — I'm not very surprised: in the United States, where the welfare state is much smaller than in France and Europe in general, voters are very sensitive and reactive to their economic situation. However, since 2020, the mandate of the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris has been marked by inflation, particularly on fuel, food and housing.
Conversely, in American political memory, Trump's first term from 2016 is associated with the recovery from the crisis initiated by the subprime crisis in 2008. And, for many Americans, the issue was to elect a administration capable of reviving the economy and from a stronger to improve their standard of living. This election is a very clear victory for the Republican Party, which won both the presidency and the majority in the Senate, and which also risks having a majority in the House of Representatives. On the other hand, it is a defeat, and even a disavowal, for the Democratic Party.
Donald Trump, who is often considered unpredictable, was elected in a geopolitical context already disrupted by wars and climate change. What consequences can this have? ?
I'm not sure he's that unpredictable: Trump has pretty clear guidelines. Furthermore, the fact that American presidents play at being unpredictable is practically a political tradition in the United States: we saw it with Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan. Trump is not an alien.
I am also surprised that we focus on Trump without looking at the omnipresence of Elon Musk, who nevertheless played a central role in the campaign. He had a very important public role and also highlighted the power of Silicon Valley's technological power. First via the acquisition of Twitter [devenu X] and the relaxation of its moderation rules. This has made this platform a kind of agora for the various conservative and climate skeptic movements, which moreover are not only deployed on this social network.
Read also: Silicon Valley turns to Trump, against a backdrop of climate misinformation
In addition, it highlighted the reaction capacity specific to these nexuses of technologies that are now the alliance between artificial intelligence, social networks and satellite constellations. For example, when Florida and North Carolina were ravaged twice in a row by Hurricanes Helen and Milton in October, he mobilized one of his company Starlink's satellite constellations by distributing portable relay antennas so that the victim communities can reconnect to the internet. At the same time, the federal state was powerless to help them.
The technological question therefore promises to be central ?
It is important to better analyze the role played by the big tech barons in this election. Musk's political presence indeed reveals a very curious alliance between different conservative and reactionary American movements and the libertarians who thrive on new technologies. Knowing that we see at the same time that Trump, who has a very tough speech towards China, wants to increase by 60 % customs duties for this country. However, China is the second market for the automobile manufacturer Tesla, which belongs to Musk… We must therefore place this new administration in its national and international context, which is very complex.
Take for example the Brics summit, which took place at the end of October in Kazan (Russia). Participating were Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Brazil, representing nearly 3.5 billion people. The Brics are akin to an alliance of producers and, in quotation marks, « carriers » oil, gas… However, the United States has once again become an oil and gas country. Geopolitics will therefore be an ongoing challenge for the Trump administration.
« The major future geopolitical and strategic issue is the status of the dollar »
A kind of parallel international order is being established, which calls into question the Bretton Woods agreements of 1944: during the Kazan summit, a cryptocurrency project which could be the common currency of the BRICS was presented. The major future geopolitical and strategic issue for the Trump administration is therefore the status of the dollar, which is challenged by this intersection of partnerships.
We are in a moment of great tension and recomposition of balances: since the beginning of the 1990s, globalization as carried by the United States, designed for consumers, has prevailed. We are now seeing partnerships emerge between producing countries and transporters. Several essential countries for consumers could well become isolated from globalization as driven by the United States.
Trump makes a series of reactionary remarks and political proposals, for example on immigration. Does his election risk accelerating the fascistization of the world? ?
First, is there a fascistization of the world ? I don't know: it's a very encompassing concept. Trump was elected in the most democratic way possible, with indisputable success. Here we see an America worried about its economy and above all concerned about itself, which is nothing new. Concerning his reactionary remarks, let us remember that each country has its specificities. What resonates in the United States is globalized by a media system that is itself globalized, but France or Spain are not the United States: it is not because a political leader says something in a country that it has such performative effects as that.
That being said, Trump does indeed have a very strong performative word – it is moreover this side « chaos engineer » which takes everyone by surprise. The question is whether, beyond its declarations, the Trump administration will be able to implement its program. If we take the example of immigration – one of the drivers of which is climate change which makes entire swaths of Central and South America unlivable, in the first sense of the term – Trump has promised to block illegal immigration. But, in the United States, there is a real separation of powers, and the renewal of a third of the senators, which will take place in a year and a half, will be a great test for his administration.
The Americans are very pragmatic: his administration will only be able to implement a certain number of measures if it manages to deliver results. If they wait, the Republican victory will then become an attractor of tensions.
He is also a climate skeptic. Should we expect an intensification of the climate crisis? ?
Trump has made climate change a political marker, with a position of primary climate skepticism: we see this with his desire to once again withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, after having already done so during his first term. That being said, there is much more continuity between Trump and Biden-Harris than one might perceive at first glance: since 2020, the Democrats have authorized a number of oil and gas concessions to be opened on American soil. In any case, the latest report from theHIM on this subject is clear: in the United States as elsewhere, we are unfortunately in a dynamic of intensifying climate change.
With its slogan “ America first “, can we speak of an isolationist posture ? What effects could this position have on global geopolitics ?
The fact that he is an isolationist does not seem obvious to me. On the other hand, I think that it will be part of the reorientation of relations between the United States and Asia that has been underway for around fifteen years. Since the second term of Barack Obama (2012-2016), it has been essential for successive US administrations to access the gigantic markets of India, Indonesia, etc., while reducing the strategic influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump, during his first term, thus launched the war on customs tariffs and transfers of knowledge and technology with China, a policy which was deepened by the Biden-Harris administration. However, one of the major challenges for China is to amplify its energy transition ; while Elon Musk wants to maintain good relations with Beijing to maintain access to the Chinese market. It is therefore still too early to know whether or not the new administration will dismantle the federal apparatus dedicated to the study of climate and biodiversity, such as the NOAAknowing that these institutions also play a crucial role in the economic development of the United States.
Furthermore, the question will arise of the weight of insurers and reinsurers in the face of the damage inflicted by extreme events. Also, contrary to appearances, I think that the Trump administration is crossed by many paradoxes and uncertainties, and that this will weigh heavily in the face of national, international and global situations which will be much more difficult to bear than announced.
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