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– Which stocks will benefit from the victory of Trump or Harris?
The suspense is more than ever at its peak. On the eve of the American presidential elections, the two candidates for the White House, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are still jostling in the polls. On the other hand, in terms of identifying the sectors – and, by extension, the stocks – which would benefit on the stock market from the victory of one or the other, the match already seems well and truly played.
Indeed, the programs of the two contenders for the Oval Office are already considered favorable to certain companies by analysts. “If Trump wins, we expect a significant defense budget, as was the case during his first term. Suppliers such as GE Aerospace, RTX and Palantir could benefit. With Harris as president, the focus will likely be on health care, which could favor companies like UnitedHealth, the nation’s largest health insurer.writes for example Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, market analyst at eToro.
Defense, fossil fuels and automobiles on the Trump side, health, housing and green energies on the Harris side
In addition to the defense sector, we could add, to the ranks of sectors that would benefit from a Donald Trump victory, that of fossil fuels, automobile manufacturers, and all small and mid caps (“small & mid cap », on the Russell 2000 index, for example), which would be boosted by the increase in customs tariffs. Without forgetting a potential jump in cryptocurrencies, boosted by the man who now presents himself as the “president of Bitcoin”. On Kamala Harris’s side, in addition to health, the renewable energy and housing sectors would potentially emerge as winners.
Donald Trump – Kamala Harris debate: the candidates who are opposed economically
But should we trust these predictions? For now, they are partly verified: “we see that ahead of the election, oil companies and the automobile sector have already benefited from the markets’ anticipation of a Trump victory”notes Alexandre Baradez, market analyst for the company IG. However, for Alexandre Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM, favor certain actions depending on the official or expected result “may make sense in the short term if you are a trader, but it does not fit well with the long-term strategy that an individual must have.”
Over the duration of a mandate, stock market results are often counterintuitive
Indeed, the two experts point out that the actions that soar over the duration of a mandate are not always what we think. For example, “between 2016 and 2020, the ExxonMobil price (one of the largest oil companies in the world, editor’s note) has, for example, only fallen, despite Trump’s stance on fossil fuels”recalls Alexandre Baradez. Conversely, this same sector has largely benefited from Joe Biden’s mandate, and, despite the President’s green agenda, stocks linked to renewable energies have remained on the table.
Stock market: the CAC 40 awaits the American presidential election at the turning point
It is therefore very difficult to bet today on the titles which will benefit from the victory of one or the other: “we put political labels on sectors, but it’s a whole environment that influences stock prices regardless of political color” points out Alexandre Baradez. The American and global economic cycle, geopolitics, and of course the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will undoubtedly move prices much more in the coming months than the verdict expected for Wednesday morning French time.
