A rapid deterioration of the Social Security deficit
The Social Security deficit for 2024, initially estimated at 10.5 billion euros, has already been revised to 18.5 billion euros, according to the latest forecasts. This worrying situation could worsen next year, with a deficit which could reach 28.4 billion euros in 2025. This amount represents 0.9% of France’s gross domestic product (GDP), compared to 0.6% in 2024 and 0.4% in 2023, according to a report consulted by Le Figaro.
This deterioration of the deficit is explained above all by an increase in expenses (+3.8%) faster than the growth in revenue (+2.3%). Social Security spending, particularly on health and retirement, continues to increase, while revenue, mainly from social contributions, is struggling to keep up. This situation highlights the financial fragility of the French social protection system.
The report from the Social Security Accounts Commission emphasizes that it is mainly the sickness and old age branches which are widening the deficit. The health sector is expected to post a deficit of 18.7 billion euros in 2025, while that of the basic pension plans and the Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV) could reach 10.3 billion euros.
A 2025 budget under pressure
The situation of the National Pension Fund for Local Authority Agents (CNRACL), which manages the pensions of local and hospital civil servants, is also worrying. Its deficit could increase from 2.5 billion euros in 2023 to 4.8 billion euros in 2025, if no corrective measures are put in place.
The CNRACL suffers from a structural imbalance. The number of retirements is increasing, while that of new members remains stable, or even decreasing. The report warns of a potential deficit of 11 billion euros by 2030, unless there is a thorough reform of the system. An increase in employer contributions is already planned in the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) to try to stem this spiral.
Faced with this observation, the government presented a Social Security financing bill for 2025 aimed at limiting the increase in spending, particularly in the area of health.. The national objective for health insurance expenditure (Ondam) will be capped at 2.8%, compared to 3.3% in 2024. However, this measure seems insufficient to contain the increase in Social Security costs, which far exceed the growth of the French economy.
The government thus hopes to reduce the deficit to 16 billion euros in 2025, but this forecast will depend on the debates in the National Assembly and the adjustments that could be made to the budget. The challenge remains major: to fundamentally reform a system which continues to plunge into the red without harming essential public services.
