Nvidia wants to debunk Apple again

In the morning, I regularly watch for events that have happened on today’s date in the past, to have anecdotes to tell when I’m dry. That doesn’t stop me from missing things, since my boss called me a complete loser on September 24 because I had missed the 300th anniversary of the Paris Stock Exchange. For example, today is World Handwashing Day. Don’t laugh, Wikipedia tells me that 200 million people celebrate it every year. I would have preferred it to be October 19th, I could have talked about the 37th anniversary of the 1987 crash and avoided going off-topic. But October 19 falls on a Saturday this year, which is dead for my column. Above all, do not see in this evocation of 1987 any warning or prophecy, since everything looks good in the best of all possible worlds on the stock markets.

You’d probably rather read that Nvidia hit a new all-time high yesterday because investors can’t stop themselves from buying AI-related stuff. The group is once again approaching the world’s leading capital position, held by Apple for several weeks with a stock market weight of $3,517 billion. To take a perfectly absurd but telling image, every time Apple loses 1%, it crushes a Pernod Ricard. And when the stock gains 1%, it creates a Capgemini. Yes, just that.

All this to say that the S&P500 reached a record yesterday at 5860 points. The Dow Jones achieved the first 43,000 point badge in its history. For the Nasdaq 100, we will have to wait a little: it is 1.2% short of reaching its record mark for the month of July. More than ever, the winners take everything in their path.

Europe is not unworthy, but it is clear that it cannot keep up with the pace imposed by Wall Street, due to a lack of AI fighters. Investors are content with the good files exposed to the theme, such as ASML which supplies the machines to manufacture the precious chips of Nvidia and company, or Schneider, whose astute repositioning on sophisticated electrical equipment has made it a key player in data centers. The other engines of European performance are blocked. Luxury is in the process of falling under the weight of the Chinese consumer crisis. While the sector seemed invincible just a few months ago, it has come to dream of consumption vouchers offered by Beijing to its flock to revive growth. I’m exaggerating a bit, but the shares of LVMH and Kering really fell yesterday because of the evaporation of rumors of direct aid to Chinese consumers from the central government.

China where rumors of new support measures are now daily. Bloomberg revealed this morning that the People’s Bank of China could cut rates again as early as this week. The voice of the Party, the Caixin agency, for its part wrote that the country could issue 6,000 billion yuan (776 billion euros) of special bonds to support investment. These rumors have not really reversed the downward trend visible on the Chinese indices this morning, after an already mixed session the day before. After words and a few actions, investors, always in a hurry, would like to see concrete effects. You will have to wait for that.

There has been a bit of turmoil over oil. Prices fell sharply (from USD 79 to USD 75 for Brent) after the Washington Post reported that Israel was not planning to strike Iranian oil or nuclear facilities. At the same time, OPEC has reduced its projections for demand for black gold. Two elements which are naturally bearish for the barrel.

Today’s session will be marked by the first big series of quarterly results. Ericsson and Sulzer were hit hard this morning in Europe. At midday, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Charles Schwab will follow in the United States. Post-European closing, this will be LVMH’s grand oral.

In Asia Pacific, a good session in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 gained 1.2% at the close. The Chinese market is taking a nosedive, both in Hong Kong (-2%) and on the continent (-1.1%). Taiwan jumped 1.4% thanks to its semiconductors, including TSMC, while Australia gained 0.8%. South Korea (+0.46%) completes the table of increases, unlike India, which hesitates (-0.1%). Europe is expected to see a slight increase. And above all, don’t forget to wash your hands.

Today’s economic highlights

European industrial production and the ZEW index of German financial confidence are expected at 11:00 a.m. In the United States, the Empire Manufacturing activity index will follow at 2:30 p.m. The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Ahold Delhaize: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 35 to 34 EUR.
• Air Liquide: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the price target from 200 to 210 EUR.
• Alcon: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target raised from 103 to 107 USD.
• Amundi: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target raised from 78.70 to 80 EUR.
• ASML: Raymond James maintains its strong buy recommendation and reduces the price target from 1300 USD to 1100 USD.
• BNP Paribas: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation with a reduced price target of 83.70 to 82.80 EUR.
• British Land: Oddo BHF starts outperformance monitoring with a price target of 500 GBX.
• Delivery Hero: Citi goes from buy to neutral with a price target raised from 32 EUR to 42 EUR.
• Engie: JP Morgan maintains its recommendation to overweight with a price target reduced from 21.50 to 20.50 EUR.
• Givaudan: Barclays maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target raised from 4070 to 4200 CHF.
• Land Securities: Oddo BHF starts outperformance monitoring with a price target of 735 GBX.
• Legrand: RBC Capital maintains its underperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 85 to 87 EUR.
• Michelin: Barclays maintains its recommendation to be underweight with a reduced price target of 33 to 32 EUR.
• Northumbrian Water: Jefferies goes from underperformance to buy with a price target raised from 140 GBX to 425 GBX.
• Paragon Banking Group: Jefferies goes from buy to hold with a reduced price target of 875 GBX to 780 GBX.
• Philips: Oddo BHF improves its recommendation from neutral to outperform with a price target raised from 23 EUR to 40 EUR.
• Rémy Cointreau: Stifel maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target reduced from 94 to 75 EUR.
• Schindler: RBC Capital maintains its recommendation of outperformance with a price target raised from 250 to 260 CHF.
• Soitec: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target reduced from 110 to 80 EUR.
• STMicroelectronics: HSBC maintains its purchase recommendation with a price target reduced from 38 to 32 EUR.
• Tag Immobilien: HSBC downgrades from buy to hold with a price target of 16.50 EUR.
• Zalando: Baader Helvea moves from buying to accumulating with a price target raised from 30 to 35 EUR.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• As controversy mounts around Sanofi’s sale of its consumer division to CD&R, the American fund is seeking to offer commitments, particularly regarding job retention.
• Stellantis has no intention of buying a competitor, assures its president John Elkann.
• Renault is relaunching its 4L in an electric version, for less than 30,000 EUR.
• Saint-Gobain acquires Kilwaughter, specialist in facade mortars in the United Kingdom and Ireland.
• Vinci wins a 432 million euro contract in Australia as a group.
• Atos is submitting its restructuring plan to the Nanterre commercial court today. Atos which at the same time announces the appointment of Philippe Salle (ex-Altran, ex-Elior) as Chairman of the Board of Directors from today and CEO from February 1, 2025.
• JCDecaux wins a street furniture contract in Rio de Janeiro.
• Pizzorno Environnement Group returns to Saint-Tropez.
• Bilendi acquires Tandemz, specialist in the recruitment of UX testers.
• Xilam launches production of season 4 of the series “Where are you, Chicky?”
• The simplified takeover bid for Wedia starts today.
• Ikonisys carried out a private placement of €0.48 million by issuing 312,657 shares at EUR 1.53 each.
• Onward Medical signs an agreement with the CEA to obtain exclusive rights to Clinatec’s Wimagine brain machine interface technology.
• MaaT Pharma announces the end of recruitment of its Phase 3 ARES trial for MaaT013 in the treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease.
• The tone rises between Versity and one of its financiers.
• The main publications of the day : Esker, Fnac Darty, Thermador, Catana, Sidetrade, Ekinops, Bluelinea, Prodware… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

• Ericsson beats Q3 profit expectations.
• Intesa alerted authorities about a security breach after checks.
• Haleon has secured planning permission from the UK Government for the development of a dedicated oral health site in Surrey, which will require £130 million of investment.
• A Deutsche Bank shareholder placed €256 million in shares, according to Bloomberg.
• Allianz will review the conditions of the purchase of its stake in Income Insurance after Singapore’s decision to block the operation.
• InPost buys remaining stake in British company Menzies for $79 million.
• Bossard acquires German distributor Ferdinand Gross.
• Mowi recorded a record harvest volume in the third quarter.
• The main publications of the day : LVMH, Christian Dior, Rio Tinto, Ericsson…

From North America

• Nvidia sets a new record and is getting closer to Apple’s capitalization. Furthermore and according to information from Bloomberg, the United States is considering limiting the access of certain countries (notably in the Persian Gulf) to the group’s chips and those of AMD.
• Google will buy nuclear power from Kairos.
• Coty warns that its fiscal first quarter sales are lower than expected.
• Verizon’s bid for Frontier faces investor skepticism, according to multiple sources.
• Phillips 66 sells 49% of its stake in its Swiss joint venture for $1.24 billion.
• Blackstone will invest 7.5 billion euros in Spain.
• Accenture acquires supply chain consulting firm Joshua Tree Group.
• Vanda Pharmaceuticals rejects Cycle Pharma’s second takeover offer.
• The main publications of the day : UnitedHealth Group, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America Corporation, The Goldman Sachs Group, Citigroup, Charles Schwab, PNC Financial Services Group, América Móvil, State Street Corporation, Omnicom Group, United Airlines Holdings, JB Hunt Transport Services, Interactive Brokers…

From Asia Pacific and beyond

• Japan’s biggest IPO in six years, Tokyo Metro, occurred at the high end of the price range, a positive signal.
• Petrobras plans to reduce investments for 2025 due to rising costs and delays in licensing.
• The main publications of the day : HDFC Life Insurance, Sichuan Chuantou Energy, HDFC Asset Management…

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

Lectures