After the period of euphoria which marked the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, could this be the start of a normalization on the travel demand side? While the tourism industry’s contribution to the global economy is expected to reach record levels this year, even surpassing pre-lockdown spending, online travel companies are already warning that They will hardly exceed the activity levels recorded in the first half of the year in 2023.
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Thursday, May 9, the accommodation reservation platform Airbnb experienced a downturn on the stock market, with a fall of 6.87% to 147 dollars (around 137 euros) on the Nasdaq in New York, while the group plans activity in the second quarter marked by a slowdown in travel spending before the summer period. The company expects a turnover of between 2.68 and 2.74 billion dollars between April and June, below the expectations of financial analysts, who were betting, for their part, on the high end of the range.
Airbnb also plans, over this same period, a number of nights “relatively stable” compared to the 9.5% increase recorded in the first quarter and the 12% expected by analysts. This is the lowest growth rate since 2020, although the company estimates the average daily rate will be slightly higher than last year. To justify itself, it cites an earlier calendar, with the shift of the Easter holidays which were held in the first quarter (otherwise better than expected) and not in the second, as well as an unfavorable impact of the exchange rate on its accounts .
Geopolitical issues
On May 3, Booking Holdings, for its part, reported strong first quarter results, with growth of 9% in room nights, 17% in revenue and 76% in operating profit. year-on-year compared to last year. But, although it exceeds the expectations of the financial community, this assessment of the Seattle group remains obscured by the anticipation of a slowdown in activity in the second quarter, particularly due to geopolitical problems in the Middle East. . By this time, reservations should only grow by 3% to 5% and revenues by 4% to 6%, depending on the group.
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Of the three American rivals, however, Expedia is the worst off. The online travel giant recorded a disappointing level of bookings in the first quarter, leading it to revise its revenue forecasts for the full year. “Our first quarter results are in line with our forecasts, with higher revenue and profit, but less robust gross bookings”, confirmed Peter Kern, the vice-president of the group, following the publication on May 2. The company saw a slower-than-expected recovery of Vrbo, its vacation rental business, as the latter lost market share to Airbnb and Booking Holdings.
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