You enjoyed the suspense over the name of the Prime Minister, you will love waiting for the appointment of the government. Having arrived last Thursday at Matignon, Michel Barnier is now tackling the difficult composition of his future government.
Barely appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron, the former Brexit negotiator received his predecessor Gabriel Attal, head of the Renaissance deputies, on Friday, then the executives of his original political family: the presidents of the LR groups in the Assembly and the Senate, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau, and the LR president of the Senate, Gérard Larcher. He continued his consultations on Sunday, notably with the new presidential candidate, Edouard Philippe, for Horizons, before François Bayrou, head of the Modem.
“A subtle balance to be found”
The delicate question of casting turns out to be, as always, a complex equation. “It’s a subtle balance to find,” according to someone close to the Prime Minister. “It’s a clever mix of parties, of representation of territories, it’s a real headache,” underlines an LR senator. And this last point should be taken into account. “They will return to territorial balances,” assures a parliamentary source. The same person close to Michel Barnier sums up:
He needs to see the red lines, the green lines, to try to find the way through. He is a mountaineer. The goal is to find a ridge line to pass through.
But caution is advised when it comes to name-dropping. “Knowing Michel, he is someone who is rather discreet. He is not the one who is going to open up until his decision is made,” warns a parliamentarian who supported him for the internal LR primary.
“Bruno Retailleau will not go at any price”
In the casting game, it seems very likely that LR members will enter the Barnier government. In addition to the names of David Lisnard, Xavier Bertrand (already mentioned for Matignon) or even Laurent Wauquiez, one name comes up insistently: that of Bruno Retailleau. The leader of the LR senators is mentioned for a sovereign position, at the Interior or Justice. If we must remain cautious, things even seem to be well advanced.
“Retailleau is a more than possible hypothesis. He has the profile. We asked him,” an LR parliamentarian who knows him well tells publicsenat.fr. Will he accept? “In principle, yes,” confides the same one. So is it good? Not completely. “Nothing is done,” this parliamentarian cautiously tempers. We must wait until the entire architecture is completed and in matters of government, experience shows that everything can change up until the last minute. “He will not go at any price,” adds another who is aware of the discussions.
“A government of quasi-cohabitation”?
The place that Emmanuel Macron will take, or rather will not want to take, is one of the essential data. While the Elysée speaks of “demanding coexistence”, Michel Barnier assured his interlocutors that he will not have a free rein. “It will be a government of quasi-cohabitation. Retailleau and Wauquiez asked who will be the head of the government. And Barnier said that he will apply article 20 of the Constitution rigorously”, according to an LR senator. As a reminder, the article says that “the government determines and conducts the policy of the nation”.
In other words, Michel Barnier will have the keys to the truck and his hands on the wheel. Under these conditions, the LR would be likely to get on board. “Macron is no longer in the game, it’s over,” also wants to believe a parliamentarian close to Michel Barnier. “This government must very quickly show signs of its independence from Macron. Which is what Barnier has done. He has eliminated the common advisers, the links in the weekly meetings,” adds the same.
“The question of Bruno Retailleau’s succession as president of the group is not a simple matter”
If he enters the government, the arrival of Bruno Retailleau, who embodies and assumes a very right-wing line on immigration and security, risks surprising some in the Senate, or even having the effect of a small bomb within the LR group. The senator from Vendée has not spared his criticism for years against Emmanuel Macron.
But for a senator from the group, he has a role to play. “He’s a powerful personality. And he’s never been a minister. If he wants to, I think he has his place. If he asked my opinion, I would tell him go ahead, it’s your turn. He’d better do it. The problem with his CV is that he’s never been a minister,” notes this senator. “Retailleau in a government, that’s a good look. It has to be a ministry that has weight, a strategic position, that has a strike force and firepower,” admits a LR senator. But this elected official who knows the group well warns about the consequences of such an appointment: “The question of his succession to the presidency of the group is not a small matter, because we have always had an extremely united, close-knit group, because we had a president like Bruno Retailleau, because he impressed us all”, warns this senator, who fears that “tomorrow, another group president will not have the experience of a Retailleau”.
“There is a cascade effect,” confirms an LR senator, who confides that “some are thinking of François-Noël Buffet (president of the law commission) for the presidency of the group, but also of Roger Karoutchi, who must think about it, he has experience.” “No one is irreplaceable,” believes another, according to whom Bruno Retailleau believes that “the state of the country is such that we are obliged to do something.” In other words, to enter the government.
“The Senate has never been very well served in Macron’s governments. We need to rebalance.”
In the Upper House, it is hoped that “there will be several senators because the Senate has never been very well served in Macron’s governments. We need to rebalance.” Other names are being floated, such as Marie-Claire Carrère Gée, LR senator from Paris, who was Michel Barnier’s campaign manager during the primary, Agnès Evren, senator at the head of the LR federation in Paris, or that of Mathieu Darnaud, LR first vice-president of the Senate. “He is part of the new political class. He is young, with a degree of expertise as a senator and local elected official. It is a credible hypothesis, if he wishes,” according to a close friend of the Prime Minister. Questioned by Le Dauphiné, the senator from Ardèche, who is well acquainted with community issues, replied that “it is a little premature.” Another name mentioned was that of the senator from Yvelines, Sophie Primas, a close friend of Gérard Larcher, for agriculture. An LR senator slips in a few others, who could have the profile according to him: “On the finance side, Jean-François Husson, budget rapporteur in the Senate, or Christine Lavarde. Or Laurent Duplomb on agriculture, a close friend of Laurent Wauquiez”. In the LR group, we also think of the senator from Savoie Cédric Vial, who had supported the former European commissioner for the primary. But being from Savoy, like Michel Barnier, would pose a problem in terms of territorial balance.
If we talk a lot about the LR, Michel Barnier will have to include members of the former majority in his team. But Gabriel Attal does not intend to provide automatic carte blanche… “There will be no desire on our part to block, nor unconditional support: only the desire to be useful to our country and faithful to our values will guide us,” assured the former Prime Minister in a message to the deputies of his group, according to AFP. He still mentions a “possible participation” of the Macronists in the future government. Still. Some “ex” would like to re-enlist, like Rachida Dati, Sébastien Lecornu or Aurore Bergé. But it is difficult to make something new out of something old, when the Macronist camp was defeated in the legislative elections. For an LR, it is even necessary that “the Macronists be a minority” in the government…
Modem ministers in the Barnier government? “Obvious” for François Bayrou
The Modem ally intends to be there too. Invited to the RTL – Le Figaro – M6 – Public Sénat Grand Jury on Sunday, September 8, the Modem leader, François Bayrou, assured that he will support Michel Barnier. He expects to see members of his party in government. “It seems obvious to me,” says François Bayrou, who assures that he will “not be a minister.” He also warns against the temptation of a government that is too LR, which “would not pass muster.” The centrist leader expects “balance and renewal.” Watch:
Horizons would not say “no”. “We will discuss it formally at the Horizons parliamentary days in Reims. Already, Laurent Marcangeli and Claude Malhuret (at the head of the Horizons group in the Assembly and the Independents in the Senate, editor’s note) have made it known that we are ready to participate in Michel Barnier’s government. We want this government to succeed because we want France to succeed”, explains Nathalie Loiseau, Horizons MEP. The former Minister of European Affairs in the Philippe government would herself be ready to find a portfolio. But “on two conditions: that it be offered to me and that I am in a position to contribute something”, this loyal follower of Edouard Philippe texts us.
On the left, “it doesn’t bite”
It is on the left that Michel Barnier is likely to have the greatest difficulty finding candidates. L’Opinion cited Jérôme Guedj, Raphaël Glucksmann or Laurence Tubiana, specifying that they would not go… Another name mentioned: Hélène Geoffroy, very critical within the PS of the Faure line and the agreement with LFI. “She was not solicited and in any case has no intention of being part of the Barnier government,” her entourage assures us.
But Matignon is getting busy. “They’re going to look. It seems that they’ve contacted MPs and senators,” says Patrick Kanner, president of the PS group in the Senate. “But as I speak, there’s no bite. I hope it won’t bite. What can you do in a galley with a shipowner without a course and a captain under dependence? I don’t see the place of a man or woman of the left in such an adventure,” maintains the former minister of François Hollande, also critical of the rapprochement between the PS and LFI.
Above all, the left sees no tangible sign that would push it to get started. Paraphrasing General de Gaulle, PS senator Rachid Temal says: “I don’t think that at 73, the prime minister is going to start a career as a progressive.” For the senator from Val-d’Oise, “it will be a right-wing government. We are going to the end of the process of the return of the RPR and the UDF, the UDF being Macronie and the LR the RPR. I don’t see what a left-wing personality would do in a right-wing government.”
“The filth of the Elysée, which throws out names to create trouble,” denounces Patrick Kanner
Unless there is a change that does not seem to be coming. “Our red lines are known: moratorium or suspension of pension reform; a fiscal effort that allows us to redistribute the effort in the recovery of the country, that is to say the reestablishment of an ISF for the climate; purchasing power with a major social and wage conference, or even a major law to revive housing in the country. If all this is announced, it is worth looking at, but at this stage, I have not seen anything that goes in this direction. But it does not shock me because he is there to implement a right-wing policy. So we will be in the opposition,” maintains Patrick Kanner, who denounces in passing that names from the left are dropped in the press: “This is the filth of the Elysée, which throws out names to create trouble and confusion, as was done for the Prime Minister.”
When the government is completed, another step will remain, even more difficult in the context: lasting. “Everyone predicts that the government will last a short time. It’s possible. But we must not rule out that it could last until the end,” that is, 2027, hopes a close friend of the Prime Minister. We are no longer far from a surprise.
