Gas, oil … and coal. The Russian decision to invade Ukraine had very clear consequences on its economy. If clear, moreover, that they train Moscow in a monster inflationary crusher.
Kneaded of uncertainty about the future, in great need of men on the front, the Federation made very high salaries mirrors at the aspiring soldiers, offering the ranks of its energy industries. To boost demand and the market, the power has granted XXL subsidies to businesses and individuals, which painfully arrived until 2024 to keep a growth rate of 4.1 % (Les Échos).
But the mechanism has exploded inflation, despite a key rate raised several times until they reach 21 %. Today, the most optimistic scenario is that of a complete stagnation in 2025, which would calm inflation, report to us in March.
Ukraine – Russia: War military planes
The long decline of coal
The country can hardly count on a softening of European sanctions on its oil, or on a renewed interest of the 27 for its gas. In 2024, Russian revenues from hydrocarbons decreased 5 % in annual sliding, an assessment mainly due to the collapse of coal exports (the large continent).
The fall in Russian coal demand was ratified by the embargo of the European Union, the day after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Russia exported a little more than 20 % of its coal to the EU, according to The Insider, but these exports were already decreasing for several years, Europe gradually closing its coal power plants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, Russia is involved in coal, refusing to see the end of the golden age of its coal basins, in Kouznetsk. While the major European countries announced their coal exit plans, Russia modernized old terminals and built new port facilities near Saint Petersburg and Mourmansk to continue to supply Europe. On April 12, it adopted a new energy strategy by 2050, in gestation for several years, which has been planning increased production.
Yet the signals are red. In 2024, net losses in the sector reached 112.6 billion rubles (or 123.3 billion euros) – against a net profit of 374.7 billion rubles in 2023 (410.2 billion euros). At the end of 2024, the ton fell under 100 dollars (around 88 euros). At the national level, more than half of the coal companies (53.3 %) became in deficit, compared to less than a third (31.5 %) a year earlier. 27 companies are now close to bankruptcy.
Beijing, the double -edged friend
At the low prices are added huge transport costs for Russian producers. The country’s rail system beats wing. In 2023, the Russian railways said that the number of trains suspended due to problems had more than doubled to reach 42,600, established the Kommersant in March 2024, taken up by Newsweek. The Russian rail is suffering from the absence of the parts formerly imported from Europe, at the forefront of which are the ball bearings, essential for locomotives.
If the country has been able to postpone part of its oil production to Asia, it has nothing to expect from Beijing in matters of coal. China thus produces a large part of this resource and mainly uses it for its own needs. Yet an ally of Moscow, the Middle Empire imposed import rights in January 2024 (3 % for coke coal and 6 % for thermal coal) on Russia), even more soothing the competitiveness of Russian coal.
