Everyone knows the old adage “who chooses takes worse”. It is commonly said under the premise that in the event of indecision in the face of an alternative, we usually take the worst option. This proverb may date from 17e century, it is still very current.
Could Montreal victory be another victim?
Among the rules specific to the LPHF, there is the one where the team which finishes at the forefront of the regular season ranking must choose the training it will face in the semi-finals of the eliminatory series between the third and fourth position.
last year, Toronto had this luxury and was to choose between Minnesota and Boston. The team had chosen Minnesota, who had finished fourth in the ranking.
Result? Minnesota eliminated Toronto in five games, before playing the same tour in Boston in the final in order to win the first Walter cup in history.
Is it the same fate that awaits Montreal? Maybe not and for several reasons.
Ottawa Avant Minnesota
First of all, it should be mentioned that Toronto had lost the services of his best player and the one who would ultimately be the most useful player in the LPHF, Natalie Spooner, at the end of the third meeting against Minnesota. The team was never the same again later.
No one is immune to an injury, but in return, no one can predict them either. So if Montreal lost a Poulin or a Desbiens, the fate of his series could be very different.
Montreal had an identical sheet of four victories against two setbacks against Ottawa and Minnesota this season. Kori’s troop Cheverie scored 15 goals against each of her opponents, while the replica occurred 12 times for Ottawa and 14 times for Minnesota. Quite similar statistics.
But what Minnesota has for her that Ottawa does not have experience in the playoff series, the experience of winning the Walter Cup. And as far as I’m concerned, it plays a lot in the scale. Imagine the slap in the face to choose the cuttings of the cup as opponents. Do you want to give defending champions an additional motivation? To ask the question is to answer it.
The attack can also come in several ways on the side of the Frost. Three players had more than 20 points. Four others had at least 15. We have two very good first lines. And if the defense players Claire Thompson and Sophie Jaques are excellent in attack, Lee Stecklein, when she does not score her first three goals in the last two games of the season, does an excellent work in defensive. And they have two guardians capable of getting up when it’s time.
Ottawa does not have the same depth. A single player produced at least 20 points. Four others had at least 15, all attackers. We don’t have a jaques or a Thompson on the blue line. And unless a surprise and a return of Emerance Maschmeyer (she has not played since March 11) it is the recruit Gwyneth Phillips which will be in front of the net. In all positions, Minnesota turns out to be a more tough opponent.
In terms of team statistics, Ottawa is the one that scored the least goals in the league while at the other end of the spectrum, we find Minnesota who ended the season with the best attack. The charge also granted four more goals than the Frost.
And even if Ottawa has won four of her last five games and last two against Montreal, Minnesota has demonstrated boundless resilience by winning two games without tomorrow, two games that we were to win if we wanted to participate in the series, including the last, on Saturday, a varope of 8 to 1 against Boston.
Is it really the team you want to face in series?
Distance, data not to be overlooked
Then there is the logistical aspect. Ottawa and Montreal are the two markets closest to each other in the league. The travel will therefore be much easier for victory. We are talking about about two hours of bus to get to Ottawa instead of almost three hours of flight for Minnesota, plus customs and waiting time before and after at the airport.
It is also an element that seems to have tipped the scales for Danièle Sauvageau and her team. The latter mentioned during the announcement of her choice Sunday evening that the process had been followed and that it will be a series “closer to the house”.
Friends and family can also be present to encourage players. Perhaps it is a little heavier to manage than to be almost closed in Minneapolis, but it has more good than bad sides.
And from a marketing point of view, even if it certainly did not influence the Sauvageau’s decision, Montreal lovers will be easier to go and see their favorites in matches 3 and 4 (if necessary), just like the amateurs of the Outaouais.
So at all levels, Ottawa was the obvious choice.
Now that this choice is made, let’s compare the forces involved.
Attackers
The first line of victory is the key to success. If Marie-Poulin, Laura Stacey and Jennifer Gardiner perform as they are capable, Montreal should be victorious. On the other hand, the second trio of Ottawa composed of Tereza Vanišová, Brianne Jenner and Shiann Darkangelo is more threatening than the second trio of Montreal, without counting the attacking contribution that Katerina Mrazova and Danielle Serdachny could have on the third. A better first trio with the best player in the world versus a better offensive depth, I declare a draw in this category.
Advantage: equality
Defender
Jincy Roese scored 14 points, but also ended the season with a differential of less than 9. Jocelyne Larocque is solid in defensive, but his age is felt, while Ronja Savolanan was probably the most constant in the group.
On the Montreal side, Erin Ambrose is still as effective on the rink despite a lower offensive production. Cayla Barnes has had offensive success in her recruit season, while Mariah Keopple (if she is awarded her injury) and Anna Wilgren are machines to block fire, they who dominated the league in this category.
It was the position that the victory had to improve and for which there was a blatant lack of depth in the series against Fleet last season. We shouldn’t see Ambrose again play more than 60 minutes!
Advantage: Montreal
Goalkeepers
If Maschmeyer had been healthy, we would have been entitled to a duel of team guardians Canada. It is rather a duel Canada v. United States to which we will be entitled and which will oppose Gwyneth Philips and Ann-Renée Desbiens.
And although Philips did very well to replace Maschmeyer, it must be admitted that Desbiens, probably the best goalkeeper this season, is one step ahead. That said, in the last three games in which they clashed – one in the LPHF, one in the rivalry series and one last at the world championships when Phillips came back to Aerin Frankel in the final – the American had the upper hand over Desbiens. A sequence that the Wall of Charlevoix will certainly want to break.
Advantage: Montreal
Coach
Kori Cheverie already has the experience of the series and admitted to having learned from her errors from last year. We all remember how much she had cut her bench against Boston, which had cost her the series. She was in perfect control of her team throughout the season and can count on a tight woven team, an atmosphere to which she has largely contributed.
For his part, there were times during the season when some experts wondered if Carla McLeod was still the woman of the situation in Ottawa. If Cheverie has really learned errors, Montreal will have the upper hand here.
Advantage: Montreal
Predictions
I’m going to get wet and say Montreal in 4. But the team could surprise and finish everything in just three parts.
In the other series, a resumption of last year between Toronto and Minnesota, I go with Minnesota in 5. It will not be an easy series for both teams, a physical series that should leave traces for anyone who will pass to the final.
If Toronto and Minnesota start their series on Wednesday, it all starts Thursday evening in Laval for the victory. The second match will take place on Sunday afternoon (it’s Mother’s Day after all), before the series was transported to Ottawa on May 13 and 16. If an ultimate match was necessary, it would take place on Sunday May 18 in the evening in place Bell.
