“These are potentially significant deposits because the Ukrainian reserves would be larger than the Portuguese reserves”comments Emmanuel Hache, economist at IFP Énergies Nouvelles and member of Iris, who indicates that Portugal is nevertheless one of the largest reserves in Europe.
gull“What is certain is that the slightest deposit of metals is considered today as a strategic asset in the face of the foreseeable increase in needs.”
“But lithium is not yet extracted in Ukraine so many uncertainties remain about the real level of reserves…. What is certain is that the slightest deposit of metals is considered today as a strategic asset in the face of the foreseeable increase in needs“, he continues. In particular the need for batteries linked to the electrification of mobility.
“Total” European dependence
An opinion shared by Jean-Marc Baele, professor of geology at UMons, who is cautious about the figures sometimes announced, such as that of 500,000 tonnes of lithium, which would make Ukraine the 5th largest lithium reserve in the world. Europe (and 16th in the world, far behind Bolivia, Argentina and Chile). Russia, for its part, currently holds twice as much as Ukraine.
gull“There is a total frenzy at the moment on lithium. This is understandable, Europe is totally dependent on imports.”
“There is a total frenzy at the moment on lithium, so the numbers may change. This is understandable, Europe is totally dependent on imports and some can inflate the figures to attract investors“, he says. “There will be a crucial challenge in supplying the electric car industry. These Ukrainian deposits could therefore be interesting because quite a few projects have been stopped or slowed down in Europe“, he continues. The reason? The famous “Nimby” effect (“not in my backyard”), i.e. the reluctance of local residents slowing down the development of relatively polluting or dirty mining activity more or less close to their places of life .
Is Europe on the wrong track when it comes to its supply of critical metals? “We risk experiencing the same thing as with Russian gas”
“ But you can’t make omelets without breaking eggs. We need these mines. Europe will remain a small player in terms of deposits, but it is in any case good to develop a “local” mining industry. Even if we only free ourselves from 15 or 20% of imports, that’s already a gain in autonomy“, he continues.
gull“You can’t make omelets without breaking eggs. We need these mines.”
“We cannot be autonomous, no specialist would dare say that. But it’s an advantage. And as with every conflict in the world, these resource issues are essential“, he recalls. “Yet Russia has huge mineral resourcesit’s scary. But it is also to deprive Europe. But let’s remain wary of these figures, which are often manipulated for geopolitical reasons.“, he adds. “Reserves also evolve as discoveries are made. They increased from 22 to 28 million tonnes of lithium identified in 2023“, he says.
“But we will have to drill and spend to be able to truly quantify these reserves”he continues.
Exchange currency
Let’s come back to the “currency” aspect. For Sébastien Gobert, an independent journalist based in Ukraine, it is “a new blow for Zelensky“. For what ? “Because this is not the first resource that Ukraine has been robbed of. Stolen arable land and coal mines, inaccessible underwater reserves in the Black Sea… Ukraine is suffering. It hampers the prospects for reconstruction and it hurts“, he continues.
gull“Ukraine is in an unfavorable position. It is not losing but not winning either. And Zelensky is trying what he can to attract support.”
“It is difficult to quantify the economic benefits of lithium, but it is a political blow. Because unlike the Biden administration, that of Trump will demand compensation for aid for the war against Russia. Zelensky can hope to convince Trump with lithium for example and the West could have preferential access to it. But without taking control of these resources, nothing is less certain“, he explains. “Ukraine is in an unfavorable position. She’s not losing, but she’s not winning either. And Zelensky is trying what he can to attract support“, he adds.
“We all want smartphones, electric vehicles, but no one wants lithium mines. It’s hypocritical”
This Russian capture of the Ukrainian lithium deposits would therefore above all be a less card in Zelensky’s game, rather than an extra card in that of Putin, who has something to see coming. But a card that some estimate to have several trillion euros of value in the long term.
