LDonald Trump’s trade threats towards the European allies of the United States are clearly contrary to the interests of both parties, given the volume of trade (1,300 billion dollars, or 1,250 billion euros) and cross investments (5,100 billion dollars, according to figures from the US Department of Commerce for the year 2022). In its logic of “America first”, the worst cannot be excluded and the European Union (EU) must anticipate obstacles to European exports of vehicles, machinery, food products and alcohol.
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From now on, the European Council [qui s’est ouvert jeudi 19 décembre à Bruxelles] must send a clear message. First, that the EU is willing to continue mutually beneficial cooperation with the United States, but will carefully monitor its actions. Then, the Union must make it clear that weakening the Western economy would constitute a dangerous signal of weakness towards Russia and China. Finally, it must be clear that if trade hostilities break out, the EU will quickly use the full range of trade defense instruments, commensurate with the damage caused.
President-elect Trump’s threats also reflect his desire to rebalance the financial burden with the United States’ allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). They have already committed to it. More worrying is the stated intention to immediately stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, which could call into question the strategic balance between Western powers and Russia. The absence of consultations between Washington and European governments would clearly be unacceptable.
Unsuitable instruments
Coming from Moscow, the range of military threats and hybrid actions (disinformation, computer attacks, destruction of submarine cables) is unfortunately known. Entrenched behind its double immunity – political, thanks to the right of veto in the United Nations Security Council, and military, thanks to its doctrine of use of tactical nuclear weapons – Russia aims to restore past glory and eliminate a supposed Western military threat. This posture receives a favorable reception among certain European politicians, notably in Hungary and among hard-right parties. Turkey, a NATO member, has, for its part, implemented close strategic, energy and economic cooperation with Moscow.
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