What will become of Russian military bases in Syria? This is the question raised by the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The naval bases of Tartous and air bases of Hmeimim are important links for the projection of Russian power in the region and in Africa.
If the Kremlin wants to be reassuring by claiming to have obtained security guarantees for its two main bases from those who overthrew the regime, their loss would have serious implications.
That of the port of Tartous would lead to a lengthening of journeys for the repair and maintenance of Russian warships. But above all, in addition to its direct access to the Mediterranean, Russia would lose the only port it has in warm waters.
The loss of the Hmeimim air base, 100 kilometers north of Tartous, would complicate the Russians’ task in Africa. It is in fact a decisive pivot for sending and repatriating men and equipment to the continent, but also an essential stopover for refueling large aircraft.
Hence the change in tone from the Kremlin. We are no longer talking about terrorists but about armed rebels. A way of smoothing things over for Russian diplomacy which actively works to preserve these bases, while studying alternatives. A naval base in Algeria, in Port Sudan, or in Tobruk, in Libya, is possible, but when it comes to an air base, Moscow currently has no alternative.
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