Published on December 10, 2024 at 5:10 p.m.
No need to wait until December 31, experts are now certain that 2024 will surpass the marks of 2023. Explanations.
High level of certainty
According to the European Copernicus Institute, the month of November 2024 was the second hottest in history. Experts are now certain: 2024 will be the first year beyond the 1.5°C mark of warming compared to the pre-industrial period. This gap corresponds to the most ambitious limit of the 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to contain global warming below 2°C. Note that the agreement refers to long-term trends, so the average difference will have to be observed over at least 20 years to consider that the limit has been crossed. But the trend does not indicate a decrease in the gap, quite the contrary.
A busy month
November 2024 was marked by devastating typhoons in Asia, historic droughts in southern Africa and even the Amazon, and late tropical storms in the Atlantic. Notably, Sara left more than 1,000 mm of rain in parts of Honduras. Globally, the month was 1.62°C warmer than a normal November in the days before oil and gas were burned. This month is the 16th out of the last 17 to record an anomaly of more than 1.5°C compared to the period 1850-1900, according to Copernicus.
It’s not El Niño’s fault
In 2023, the El Niño phenomenon accentuated the rise in global temperatures for the month of November to a record level. But no El Niño in November 2024, and we have just experienced a November almost as hot. Would such a temperature anomaly have become the new norm?
Tipping point?
It will be interesting to observe the trend for the year 2025. Observations of the ice area in Antarctica do not bode well. Sea ice has recently reached historic lows. Also according to Copernicus, Antarctica’s ice extent in November was 10% below average.
With the collaboration of Kevin Cloutier, meteorologist.
SEE ALSO: Baywatch: a furious fire reaches the city
World
