After the political earthquake of the presidential election result, Romania fears new aftershocks. The qualification for the second round of the pro-Russian far-right candidate Calin Georgescu and the centrist candidate Elena Lasconi seems threatened by the decision of the Romanian Constitutional Court, which ordered a new count on Thursday, November 28.
As voters prepare to return to the polls on Sunday for another vote, legislative elections, several observers denounce a political choice by the Constitutional Court, which would plunge Romania into a political crisis with an uncertain outcome. Franceinfo recaps.
What happened in the first round of the presidential election?
On Monday, some Romanians woke up in shock to discover the qualification for the second round of the presidential election of far-right candidate Calin Georgescu. This admirer of Vladimir Putin obtained 22.94% of the votes, ahead of centrist candidate Elena Lasconi (19.18%). Pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, until then favorite in the election, finished in third place (19.15%), with only 2,740 votes behind.
The Calin Georgescu surprise, who had never exceeded 10% in opinion polls before the first round, was notably enabled, according to observers, by a digital campaign orchestrated on the social network TikTok. The Romanian authorities openly questioned on Thursday the responsibility of the platform, owned by the Chinese giant ByteDance, by estimating that the pro-Russian candidate had benefited from a “preferential treatment” from this very popular application in Romania.
According to TikTok, “it is categorically false to claim” that his account “was treated differently from other candidates”. An investigation carried out by the Romanian site G4media, however, reveals that the social network was “flooded” with content about him, favoring the rapid rise in his notoriety.
Why is the Constitutional Court requesting a new count?
Made up of nine members appointed by the executive and Parliament, the Constitutional Court received several complaints after this first round which defied predictions. She rejected an appeal, received “lately”which denounced the opaque funding of Calin Georgescu's campaign.
On the other hand, she ordered “unanimously” to carry out a new count, after having been contacted by another candidate, the MEP Cristian Terhes. He denounced irregularities in several offices, concerning the counting of the votes of a candidate, Ludovic Orban, who had given up the presidential race in the last days to join Elena Lasconi, but whose name was still present on the ballots. The authorities are wondering if certain polling stations did not improperly transfer Ludovic Orban's votes to Elena Lasconi.
The Romanian authorities have also noted “cyberattacks” aimed at “influence the regularity of the electoral process”noting “growing interest” from Russia. According to the legislation, the election can be canceled in the event of discovery of “fraud likely to alter the results or the order of arrival of candidates”. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has also raised the specter of a “stolen election”while ensuring that he would not stand again in the event of a new election.
Why is this new counting of ballots causing controversy?
Across the country, large bags of ballots were transported for a recount process that could last three days, behind closed doors. Doubts about the transparency of this operation emerged, with access to independent observers having been refused by the authorities.
“In the end, it is the officials of the prefectures, the government representatives, who will recount the votes”denounces to franceinfo Cristian Preda, professor of political science at the University of Bucharest. This former EPP MEP also questions the legitimacy of the decision of the Constitutional Court: “There is only three polling stations in which minutes present irregularities, and they do not favor any candidate.”
“One interpretation of this decision is to find enough errors in the recount to allow Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to regain second place.”
Cristian Preda, professor of political scienceat franceinfo
Elena Lasconi's center-right USR party therefore filed an appeal against the decision. And the liberals criticized a judgment “confusing, which only fuels worries and tensions”. On social networks and in the streets, Romania is in turmoil. “Twenty hundredths, the country is not going to steal from us”chanted a hundred young students opposed to Calin Georgescu in the center of Bucharest on Thursday evening, in reference to the points gap separating Elena Lasconi and Marcel Ciolacu.
What could be the consequences for the current elections?
At the end of the vote recount, the Constitutional Court can choose to validate the vote, annul the election or modify the results. In this third case, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, eliminated in the first round, could return to the race. But it would also cast suspicion on the current electoral process. “Instead of getting behind Lasconi to fight fascism, we are making political calculations. I am very worried”a former diplomat tells franceinfo.
The situation is all the more complex as Romanians are preparing to return to the polls on Sunday for the legislative elections, which should make it possible to renew the two chambers of Parliament on a proportional basis. “We are asking voters to vote in the legislative elections without even knowing the two presidential finalists”wonders Cristian Preda.
One thing is certain: after three decades of political life structured by the two major traditional parties (the liberal right and the social democrats), analysts predict this time a fragmented hemicycle and difficult negotiations to form a government. In a context of inflationary crisis and rejection of the political class, the far right is credited in polls with more than 30% of voting intentions. The results of the vote are therefore awaited with feverishness by the West, who fear a strategic reorientation of this large neighbor of Ukraine, until now a loyal member of the European Union and NATO.
