CARDS – Since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the fall of 2022, the front line has followed this tributary of the Donetsk River. The Russians have established a bridgehead on the right bank.
This is a new blow in the Russian strategy of «a thousand cuts »which consists of increasing attacks along the entire front line to disperse the Ukrainian forces. On November 24, the Russians crossed an important river in eastern Ukraine, the Oskil, a tributary of the Donetsk. The bridgehead at this modest stage, as it stretches about 5 kilometers long and about 1 to 2 kilometers wide, has been confirmed by the map «Deep State Map»close to the Ukrainian army, which geolocates images of the conflict. Russian forces are believed to be at the gates of a small town, Dvorichna, crossed by a major road leading to the town of Koupiansk, located 15 kilometers further south and straddling the two banks of the Oskil.
The crossing of this “wet cut” may seem anecdotal at first glance, but it is not. Since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the fall of 2022, the Russians have been driven out of a vast area of more than 10,000 km2, which formed a “balcony” over the strategic region of Donbass, the epicenter of fighting in the war in Ukraine. From this region, they threatened to take from the north the two great Ukrainian fortresses – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – in the Donetsk oblast. However, concretely, the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to the right bank of two rivers running from North to South: schematically, the Russians are held on the left bank of the Oskil above the town of Koupiansk and are held on the left bank of the Zherebets (river located 30 km further east) below this key logistics town.
Balcony above Donbass
In other words, the Ukrainians hold an area of approximately 1,800 km2 located between the Oskil and Zherebets rivers. For two years, the Russians, who have slowly returned to the offensive, have been trying to reduce this large Ukrainian salient which is a logistical challenge for kyiv since it requires crossing the Oskil, whose bridges are regularly targeted by Russian forces. Until now, this Kupiansk offensive was therefore a race to the Oskil, this river being able to serve as a potential border for Russia to naturally protect the northern flank of its system. Up to the Oskil, therefore, but not beyond. By crossing this river, the Russians could indicate broader objectives. “They might want to avoid the Oskil being a border”observes a French military source, while the hypothesis of negotiations is reinforced with the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House on January 20.
However, a simple beachhead is not enough to conclude that the Russians are once again seeking to build a large “balcony” above Donbass. They would have to conquer several thousand km2, while Russian gains on the Kupiansk front have been more like 1 to 2 km2 per day in recent months. They would also have to create a logistical route on the right bank of the Oskil to supply a sufficient volume of forces to extend the bridgehead and thus exploit it.
The Russians could especially want to cross the Oskil to threaten the town of Kupiansk 15 kilometers further south, which constitutes a vital logistical node for the Ukrainians, who pass there to supply their forces located on the left bank of the river. However, on this same bank, the Russians are only 4 kilometers from the eastern part of Koupiansk. 15 days ago, they even launched an assault, reaching close to the heart of the city. “It was a tactical initiative of a mechanized patrol, but the stakes are operational”then slipped another French officer to the Figaro. This week, the Ukrainians managed to absorb this dangerous Russian point in the defensive system. “The crossing of the Oskil River this time allows the Russians to overflow from the north west of Kupiansk”explains a senior officer, who believes that this new bridgehead constitutes “the succession of the first offensive maneuver on the city”.
While the Russians are now advancing in the Donbass, further south, by 200 km2 per week, this new fixation point, far from the center of gravity of the conflict, in any case poses a serious challenge to the Ukrainians, who lack men. “Moscow’s objective is to multiply the crisis sectors to better provoke the congestion of Ukrainian forces”describes our first military source. This news “notch” The Russians therefore force the Ukrainians to send troops to absorb it. “The Russian bridgehead on the Oskil reminds us that a wet break, poorly defended and not beaten by fire, only has the value of a temporary slowdown”analyzes the historian and reserve officer Stéphane Audrand on the Ukrainian advance in this same region in the fall of 2022.
