IIt is difficult for a Cartesian mind to understand the logic of Donald Trump. It cultivates unpredictability, the politics of emotion and a certain contempt for the truth. It is therefore better to take an empirical approach, based on observation. For the moment, only the nominations and a few first announcements are authentic.
However, the choices announced or envisaged outline a Trump administration divided not so much between two camps as into two polarities. The more the terrain is that of international strategy, the more the choice is that of competence and rational options, with men who have listened and learned at length. The closer we get to domestic politics and society, the more erratic the nominations seem, based on personalities created by social media, the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement and conservative or denialist fundamentalism. This is the “Trump diagonal.” It was unpredictable, given what was said during the presidential campaign.
This is how Marco Rubio (Republican senator from Florida and Trump's main competitor in the primary elections) for the State Department and Michael Waltz (member of the House of Representatives and former proven military advisor) at the National Security Council have strong strategic knowledge. Their convictions are the opposite of isolationism, without recommending an “abandonment” of Europe. Waltz speaks today about “restore deterrence” in the Ukrainian conflict and an end ” responsible “ to war. Both emphasize the China challenge, to which they have devoted a lot of energy in Congress.
Loyalty, an essential criterion
Scott Bessent, former advisor to George Soros and oracle of financial markets, is appointed to the Treasury. It emphasizes deregulation and purchasing power. Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, who became close to the president, failed to place Howard Lutnick, the emblematic financier of Cantor Fitzgerald, in this position, nearly 70% of whose workforce died in the September 11 attacks. This one is placed in trade, and has especially appeared as a supporter of customs surcharges towards Europe. Trump, for his part, has just taken a first position for surcharges targeting China, Mexico and Canada: Chinese sales will have difficulty getting around American barriers through the neighborhood.
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