Despite what the president-elect’s supporters say, the 2024 election was one of the closest in history. Kamala Harris only lost by 1.6% of the vote.
Each week, since November 5, brings its share of statistics which fuel the Democratic record.
Historical Downside Support
We already know that they failed to mobilize their voters, since Kamala Harris lost seven million votes compared to the support obtained by Joe Biden in 2020.
Surprisingly if we consider the results of the midterm elections where they rose up to register their disagreement with the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion, women did not support Kamala Harris with as much enthusiasm as ‘we would have believed it.
Just as surprising when we know that Trump was convicted of sexual assault and that he made misogynistic remarks, he slightly improved his statistics with the female electorate, increasing his performances in 2016 and 2020 by four points, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
Better dose the message
The president-elect’s gains among the female electorate are minimal, but remembering how recent election cycles have been decided by a few handfuls of voters, Democrats should take notes.
Not everything is going bad for them and a little more analysis indicates that the party is still, by far, the favorite of those who are concerned about abortion, health care, individual freedoms or the future of democracy.
Same thing when we dissect this electorate. Black, Spanish-speaking or more educated women leaned for Kamala Harris, as they did previously for Clinton or Biden.
While this data resembles that of other elections, the difference lies in the margins of victory. Those who have changed allegiance have done so for pragmatic reasons.
With the exception of black women, whose support is stable, some others have moved to the Republican camp because of a desire for change or, above all, their perception of the economic situation.
Just as was the case for the rest of the electorate, it seems that the Democrats underestimated the importance of these themes. The message was poorly balanced, with the economy remaining the most important theme of the presidential election.
Doubts about Trump
If there is any short-term hope for the Democrats, it is that many women who changed their vote in favor of the Republican did so wary of his attitude and the threat he could represent to their rights.
We therefore voted for Trump mainly with the economy in mind, but this vote is not enthusiastic and we could easily get it back in 2026 and 2028.
Many Republican elected officials do not appreciate all the stories of sexual assault surrounding certain appointments of Donald Trump.
