guillement“In this scenario of total blockage, France would become ungovernable. And after a year in such a situation, Emmanuel Macron could decide on a new dissolution.”
A France completely at a standstill?
Two scenarios are now possible within a week. Either an absolute majority for the RN, or a complete blockage of the institutions, with a National Assembly totally divided between several large blocs.In the first case, we will quickly see new tensions on French debt rates. In the second case, that of a blockage, discussions will have to take place at every level, at every moment with a government that is not moving forward and that will be incapable of taking measures to support businesses. Everything that has been decided in recent years would then be unraveled. And this while the European Commission will give the French State instructions in November to encourage it to take measures to reduce its deficit. France will then come to a complete standstill.”the economist continues. And adds: “In this scenario of total blockage, France would become ungovernable. And after a year in such a situation, Emmanuel Macron could decide on a new dissolution”. And it would be off again for a ride…
An election and a dissolution that are not going down well with the financial markets. “I don’t think it is possible to talk about panic yet”
Shock wave
But for the economist, all of Europe will suffer from the situation. “Emmanuel Macron had made a number of proposals on the need to go further in the model of a more united and stronger Europe. All of that has fallen through today. This is bad news for France, but above all catastrophic news for Europe, especially since Germany is also very weakened.”he explains to us again.
guillementWe are reaching a time when we, as Europeans, will have to position ourselves vis-à-vis China but also the United States, especially in the perspective of Trump’s return to the White House.”
Because for Bernard Keppenne, this shift in French political life goes far beyond the interests of the French alone and its shock wave will be felt across the whole of Europe: “We are arriving at a moment where we as Europeans will have to position ourselves against China but also against the United States, especially in view of Trump’s return to the White House. Today, Europe is caught in a pinch. And in this context, we need a Europe that moves forward.” he insists. “To mobilize Europeans’ savings and reinject them into the economy, to support major projects in strategic areas such as digital or renewable energies while these funds are currently going to the United States, to stimulate European defense and continue to support Ukraine, to gain our independence in artificial intelligence, electric batteries, microprocessors, etc. If tomorrow we have a French government headed by the RN, which is a party that has a position of withdrawal from Europe, all these fundamental projects will be at a standstill. And in the end, it is the entire European project that will suffer,” he continues.
Why Macron’s adventure is also very bad news for Europe
A weakened position against Russia
For Bernard Keppenne, one man is in any case rubbing his hands today: Vladimir Putin. “What is happening in France clearly weakens Europe’s position vis-à-vis Russia”, he explains again. And to regret that these European issues were “swept away and forgotten” during this campaign.
Should we fear further major turbulence on the financial markets, the day after the second round of the legislative elections?In the coming weeks, things are likely to rock on the Paris Stock Exchange. The stock market has lost in three weeks the gains made since the beginning of this year. But there is one reassuring element: the other European stock exchanges have held up well, like the German stock exchange which is still showing an 8% gain since the beginning of the year. In the end, it is mainly French industry that will suffer from the situation and the State that will see the cost of its financing increase.affirms our interlocutor in conclusion.
