Nearly 8.3 million illegal immigrants were working in the United States in 2022, primarily in the agriculture and construction sectors. Their expulsion, desired by Donald Trump, would have a negative impact on the American economy.
Donald Trump's uncompromising approach, which envisages mass expulsions of migrants, could have a significant negative impact on the economy, analysts warn. Particularly because certain sectors cannot function without this workforce.
This is particularly the case for agriculture and construction, which employ hundreds of thousands of migrants, sometimes illegal, to operate. In total, 11 million people live in the United States without papers, the vast majority coming from Mexico, American authorities estimate, and nearly 8.3 million of them were working in 2022, according to the Pew Research Center, i.e. the equivalent of 5% of the workforce.
Their number is, however, significantly higher in certain key sectors, assures the American Council on Immigration (AIC). “Construction or agriculture would lose one in eight workers, and the hotel and catering industry one in fourteen, if undocumented workers were expelled from the country», Estimated the organization in a recent report. The effect would be even stronger on certain professions, with an impact of “more than 30%» for plasterers, roofers or painters or 25% for cleaning staff.
Fewer employees available
A joint report from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) estimated the impact on growth in 2025 if Mr. Trump carried out his threats at 0.4 percentage points.
An impact which would firstly concern production, with fewer employees available but also with consumption which would decrease slightly, due to the absence of expenditure by these demographic groups. Such a scenario would materialize if “legal immigration slightly lower than pre-pandemic as deportation efforts reach levels not seen in recent decades», underlines the report.
According to their projections, 3.2 million people could be expelled from the country by the end of Donald Trump's mandate, with net migration which would drop from 3.3 million in 2024 to -740,000 in 2025, under the effect of voluntary departures.
In the most extreme scenario, which analysts say is unlikely, the impact on growth could be worse. The think tank PIIE modeled the effect of deporting the 8.3 million illegal immigrants working in the United States, estimating the impact on economic growth by 2028 as being 7.4% under the potential level otherwise reached, i.e. zero growth during the entire mandate.
Inflation could increase
Another effect is that inflation could be 3.5 percentage points higher by 2026, while wages will necessarily increase for American employees. But even in a less radical scenario, mass evictions will push prices up, analysts warn.
«I think the president-elect's plans on immigration could lead to a sharp rise in prices in certain sectors of the economy, which could lead to inflation», Estimated, interviewed by AFP, the director of economic studies of the AEI, Michael Strain.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, however, judge the aggregate effects on inflation to be minor, in a recent note, “with upward pressure in certain sectors offset by a drop in demand in others such as housing».
A slowdown in immigration
Overall, analysts believe that legal, financial and logistical difficulties will prevent the most extreme proposals from being realized, such as during Donald Trump's first term, with ultimately a simple slowdown in immigration next year, compared to the pre-pandemic period.
«We believe that strengthening migration policy would reduce the positive net balance to 750,000 per year, slightly below the million per year before the pandemic.», Anticipated the Goldman Sachs economists in a note.
«We remain cautious as to whether the expulsions announced during the campaign will actually be carried out.», Estimated for his part Ryan Sweet, the chief economist of Oxford Economics, in a note.
But if the Trump government succeeds in removing the obstacles, the economic impact will be significant, assures Elora Mukherjee, professor at Columbia University: “if these policies are implemented it will have a devastating effect on the economy».
