The campaign ends Friday at midnight for the first round of the legislative elections where the far right is given the big favorite, a prelude to a possible victory on July 7.
All the polls give a very comfortable lead to the National Rally. Strengthened by the fringe of Republicans allied to Eric Ciotti, the far-right party was credited with 36% of voting intentions on Friday by Elabe, as for Ifop and Ipsos the day before.
The left united under the banner of the New Popular Front remains behind between 27.5% and 29%, and the outgoing Macronist majority relegated to between 19.5% and 21%.
Despite its large lead, the RN is not guaranteed to have an absolute majority at the end of the second round.
Everything will depend on the result on Sunday evening, knowing that a high participation is expected: almost two voters in three plan to vote, compared to less than one in two in the 2022 legislative elections.
With a predictable consequence: “There will certainly be those elected in the first round”at a level “that we hadn’t known for a long time”, predicts the Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos Brice Teinturier. More than 50 like in 2002? More than 100 like in 2007? Their number will in any case give an idea of the scale of the navy blue wave announced.
But everything will not be decided on Sunday, because there will also be “a lot of triangulars” adds the pollster, who anticipates “potentially 200, even 240” constituencies in this scenario.
“Quiet strength”
Unless those less well placed on the left or in the center opt for a “republican desistance” against the extreme right. An option mainly defended within the New Popular Front, where ecologists, socialists and communists have made it known that their candidates who came in third place would withdraw.
Way to put pressure on the Macronists, whose leaders are reserving their instructions for Sunday evening. Several left-wing figures have also planned to go to the headquarters of Renaissance and MoDem on Friday afternoon to deliver a column – already published in the press – calling for “systematic withdrawals throughout the republican arc in view of the second round” of July 7.
But the strategists of the presidential camp seem to be moving towards a line “neither RN nor LFI” which is not unanimous among their troops.
A choice partly justified by the figure of the rebellious patriarch Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who remains a scarecrow for his adversaries. “The leader of the left has always been targeted personally”said the person concerned on M6 on Thursday evening, who does not intend to be “wiped off the map”.
Including by his allies who do not want to see him become Prime Minister in the event of victory. Notably the socialist Olivier Faure who subsequently affirmed, during a final televised debate on France 2, that “at Matignon we will need a quiet force”, in contrast to the tempestuous tribune who had collected 22% of the votes at the last presidential election.
“They are making a big mistake if they think they are going to win votes by attacking me. What they are risking is putting off the people who vote rebellious from voting for them.”warned Mr. Mélenchon.
Arm wrestling
The showdown will continue until the last moment. Like the Marseille LFI candidate Sébastien Delogu, who will be in Seine-Saint-Denis on Friday afternoon to support his comrade Aly Diouara against his ex-colleague Raquel Garrido.
The social democrat Raphaël Glucksmann will hold a last big meeting at the end of the day in Rouen.
On the outgoing majority side, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will once again be stepping up his game, with two TV appearances in the morning and evening, interspersed with a quick return trip to the Rhône in the early afternoon to support candidates from Lyon.
A final opportunity to dish out blows on both sides, the day after a second lively debate with MM. Bardella and Faure, where the head of government particularly attacked the first, accused of supporting “around a hundred candidates” who had made “racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic” remarks.
