the essential
More than two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, discussions seem to have stalled, contact has been broken between kyiv and Moscow, yet Vladimir Putin seems ready to give up his arms… on a few conditions.
La Dépêche du Midi: Are there negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or has contact been definitively broken?
Jean Géronimo, doctor of economic sciences specializing in Russia (1) : No, the negotiations are at a standstill. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even included in an official text the ban on negotiating with Vladimir Putin’s regime. We must also see that the United States and the United Kingdom are pushing in this direction and this is not the first time…
Photo Jean Géronimo
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What does that mean ?
Already in 2022, these nations have buried a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. It is now known that the signature was imminent, it was supposed to resolve the question of Donbass and end the conflict in Ukraine, but the United States and the United Kingdom put pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky to refuse, promising him their military aid to drive the Russian army from their territory. Since then, they have sold weapons to Ukraine and taken a significant share of the global gas market, but that’s another matter… It also allowed the extension of NATO.
What did this agreement contain?
The agreement provided for the recognition of the “special status” of Donbass, the region remained Ukrainian but benefited from a certain autonomy, comparable to that of Corsica in France. The use of the Russian language had to be guaranteed. A disarmament of border areas also had to be implemented. Finally, Ukraine was to benefit from a neutral status and not join the ranks of NATO. We must keep in mind that Putin did not want war, he was thinking of withdrawing after obtaining this agreement.
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Would he not have sought to go further, as he had suggested?
I don’t think so, I think he would have stopped the conflict if the peace agreement had been signed. Donbass has been his obsession since Ukraine’s violation of the Minsk Treaty. The story is complex but if we summarize, a “American-Ukrainian strategic partnership charter” was signed on November 10, 2021, confirming kyiv’s desire to retake Donbass by force. In February 2022, Putin noted an acceleration of bombings on Donbass, a concentration of Ukrainian forces in the area and abnormal air activity, three signs preceding an attack according to Putin, which is why he took the lead.
Russia has restarted the negotiation process in recent days, what is happening behind the scenes?
Indeed, he proposed to take the same elements as in 2022 taking into account the reality on the ground, namely, the loss of the equivalent of 30% of Ukrainian territory to the benefit of Russia (east of the country). In these territories, it is impossible to go back, the population would not understand it. But on the kyiv side, the door is closed, it is not ! By 2022, the war party has won, and the Ukrainian people have been sacrificed on the altar of the Cold War.
