A thousand days of fighting, hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded and nearly ten million Ukrainians who left their country. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, eight years after the annexation of Crimea, brought high-intensity war back to Europe. And following heroic resistance during the first days of the conflict, then a counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 with relative success, the Ukrainian army and population are giving signs at the start of winter 2024 of exhaustion.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reports more than 15,500 men who deserted the Ukrainian army between January and August 2024, five times more than in 2022 (3,300) and almost twice as many as in 2023 to date. which 7,800 deserters had been counted. “We always considered that because Ukraine was supported by the West, it was going to win,” notes Yves Boyer, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research and member of the think tank The Alphem group. And now, for this conflict specialist, “realism prevails” and it seems obvious that Ukraine will not be able to regain the ground it has ceded.
A thousand days after the start of the conflict, where are the troops on the ground?
We witnessed the last spasms of the Ukrainian forces with the July offensive, that on the Sea of Azov, which was a failure, and with the Kursk incursion. The objective of going to the nuclear power plant and its strategic munitions depot – even if it had been emptied by the Russians – was not achieved. The Ukrainians have exhausted some of their last battle-hardened troops there. For their part, the Russians, who know how to wage war, have partly corrected their initial mistakes. They in turn massively developed drones. They also changed their method of attack, putting more speed and mobility into it, sending small groups of eight to ten motorcycles which, instead of carrying out frontal attacks, bypassed the lines. But also by taking the defenders from behind before the rest attack from the front.
The Ukrainians are armed in less quantity and the ratio of fire has increased in favor of the Russians. Russian tactics are death by 1,000 wounds, on a front 1,000 kilometers wide. We attack, we nibble and that allows us to move forward. Soon, they will have control of the entire Donbass, Kurakhove and Pokrovsk will fall in the coming weeks. The situation is very unfavorable for Ukraine, which does not mean that the Russians do not have losses.
What state is the Ukrainian army in?
The best-trained Ukrainian forces were crushed after more than two years of war. New recruits are less determined. The average age is 45 years old. The army is running out of steam. This fatigue was able to be masked by the extraordinary Ukrainian leadership and its ability to embellish things, to communicate some successes. When they lose ground, they manage to highlight some of their small successes. We are talking about deep drone strikes, for example, which were able to reach Moscow, without causing any real damage, but also certain ammunition depots.
There is also mention of a growing increase in desertions in the Ukrainian army…
When guys aged 40 or 50 are on the front and see that the July offensive or that of Kursk were failures, morale drops and is not good. Eight to ten million Ukrainians have fled the country, the injured are increasing and families do not know where their uncle or their brother, or their father, is. They therefore cannot even receive the bonus. The discontent of the population is increasing. Commissioners check the identity and age of men in the street in order to send them by force to the front with very rudimentary training and with little or no supervision by officers.
What do we think of the support for Ukraine after the election of Donald Trump and that of other allies?
Realism prevails. War has its laws and when a war lasts, it can last a long time. It was always considered that because Ukraine was supported by the West, it would win. But on the ground, the Ukrainians have entered a very difficult military phase for them. The Ukrainian allies pay lip service, even if money and weapons are substantial. But it's a bit like patting someone on the back as you watch them go to the front. Regarding Donald Trump, we know that his Secretary of State for Defense, Pete Hegseth, is not enthusiastic about supporting Ukraine.
Can we envisage the scenario of peace on Russian conditions?
For Crimea, things have been resolved for a long time. For the rest, the Russians will not agree to withdraw even though they have suffered heavy losses. And if the United States gets involved, it becomes much more complex. The negotiations will be broader and will go beyond Ukraine, focusing, for example, on European security issues or strategic arms treaties. Ukraine will remain an essential subject but it will be part of a much more important whole… When your protectors have other agendas than yours, you remain one piece among others on the chessboard of a balance of power economic, diplomatic, military.
All our articles on the war in Ukraine
Is a collapse of the Ukrainian front to be feared?
Even if the front collapsed, I don't think the Russians would go to kyiv overnight. They would need the logistical capabilities to keep up. What could happen, however, is a political change in kyiv, with the departure of Volodymyr Zelensky, who suspended the elections, and his replacement by Valeri Zalouzhny who can speak to the Russians where Volodymyr Zelensky assures that he will never negotiate with Vladimir Putin. Because, in Washington, we can end up getting annoyed with these people who don't want to negotiate.
