“The national security team that is taking shape reflects the coalition that Donald Trump assembled during his campaign”

Peter Rough, director of the Center for Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank located in Washington, analyzes the principles that will guide the Trump administration's foreign policy actions. The researcher, committed to the right, notably defends the posture adopted by the president during his campaign.

Recently, Donald Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine “in twenty-four hours”; his running mate, JD Vance, for his part, discussed the broad outlines of a possible agreement with Russia; the newly appointed personalities to key positions in his administration seem to share the desire to “put an end to this war”. For your part, you recently argued that a Ukrainian victory was essential to the security of the United States. Are you worried?

The national security team that is currently taking shape reflects the grand coalition that Donald Trump brought together during his campaign: there are, in my eyes, nuances and differences in positioning between each of the profiles announced. For example, Marco Rubio [nommé secrétaire d’Etat] and Tulsi Gabbard [nommée à la direction nationale du renseignement] come from opposite backgrounds, since the latter comes from the Democratic Party. I expect these various parties will debate Ukraine vigorously within the administration, before Trump makes a decision on how to proceed.

In any case, there will be no continuity with the policy pursued by the Biden administration, and its cautious, gradual approach to aid provided to Ukraine. The choice to accompany this assistance with restrictions, such as the ban on the use of long-range missiles to disrupt supply chains on Russian territory, caused things to drag on, because the Ukrainians were never really given the means to win, without being abandoned to certain defeat. It has also contributed, over the past two or three years, to putting the US domestic economy under pressure to finance aid programs for Ukraine, and this issue has become a hot political issue. So I don't think the new administration will continue down this path.

Donald Trump has repeatedly indicated that he wants to negotiate with Moscow. I would take these statements seriously. The question will be whether he will find in Putin a partner open to negotiation. Perhaps an agreement can be reached, but if the Russians prove difficult or resistant to any discussion, then I would not be surprised if Donald Trump got behind the Ukrainians and supported them vehement.

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