“A squadron of attack drones”a “complex attack” et “tens of thousands of fighters ready to confront the Israeli army”. For several days, Hezbollah has been increasing its satisfaction and boasting. Despite the deadly explosions of pagers and booby-trapped walkie-talkies targeting hundreds of its members. Despite the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27. And despite the intensification of Israeli air raids on its strongholds in South Lebanon and the Bekaa Plain on September 23.
The message is clear: the Lebanese Islamist movement wants to show that it is holding on. But behind this propaganda aimed at the Hebrew State and its own fighters, in what state is this Party of God really found – French translation of the term Hizb Allah – who are among the most powerful non-state actors in the Middle East?
“It’s not Hamas”
The comparison with the thirty-three days of war in the summer of 2006 speaks for itself: eighteen years ago, not a military or political leader of Hezbollah had been killed by Israel, despite repeated attempts . And at the end of the fighting, the movement rose again, crowned with a “victory” with Hassan Nasrallah seen as a rock star by his supporters.
Today, his replacement and former number two, Naïm Qassem, is trying to present himself as the man of reconstruction. Despite the blows inflicted, on November 6 he reiterated his determination to continue the fight against Israel.
“Hezbollah is certainly very weakened, but it is not Hamas. It has a much higher number of experienced soldiers and much superior weaponry, notes Joseph Daher, professor at the University of Lausanne, author of an essay on Hezbollah (1). They are holding up with the rockets sent almost daily to Israeli military sites. They kept the bulk of their long-range and more destructive arsenal. »
Israeli sources, the only ones available on this subject, speak of 120,000 to 150,000 rockets remaining out of the 200,000 attributed to the movement, specifies the researcher.
Even though Hezbollah inflicted notable losses on the Israeli army in its attempted ground infiltrations into the south, destroying several tanks and causing the deaths of several dozen soldiers, the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, believes that the movement “has so far failed to effectively carry out a major military campaign.” But, he adds, “This degradation of Hezbollah and the serious disruption it is experiencing is likely temporary, and the group can reconstitute itself if Israeli operations cease soon.”
No credible alternative
An armed organization, Hezbollah is also a political group. “Even if it is experiencing the greatest political and military challenge since its foundation, it will not disappearestimates Joseph Daher. Unlike other Lebanese parties, such as the Future Movement, founded by Rafik Hariri. »
And the researcher adds: “It is a structured, organized party, with institutions that work, even weakened by the war and Israeli bombings. Hezbollah will face real challenges after the war, such as the question of reconstruction and the provision of services and assistance to its popular base, which is suffering enormously. In the current context, the hypothesis that she is leaving the party massively needs to be strongly qualified. »
Joseph Hence pointe “the absence of a massive and credible political alternative to the movement”, adding that “the Shiite community that supports him will probably not join an opposition like the Lebanese Forces of Samir Geagea (the main Christian parliamentary bloc). »
(1) Hezbollah. A religious fundamentalism put to the test of neoliberalism, Ed. Syllepse, 2019, 284 p., €22.
