The danger was already very plausible. But the chances of this event occurring have increased due to climate change, according to the study “Probabilistic tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea”, published recently in the journal Pure and applied geophysics.
The Mediterranean coasts risk being victims of a very large tsunami. In any case, this is what the study Probabilistic Tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea reveals, published in the journal Pure and applied geophysicslately.
It is particularly the Alboran Sea which is one of the areas with the highest seismic activity in the country. Which means that the entire Mediterranean coast, from Valencia to Malaga, with the Balearic Islandsis likely to be hit by a large-scale tsunami.
The Spanish Atlantic coast is also particularly capable of experiencing one. Particularly because of the Averroes marine faultlocated in the Alboran Sea, capable of generating waves up to six meters highlikely to reach the Spanish coast at lightning speed: between 21 and 25 minutes. “Jump faults” could be the cause of such an event.
100% probability by 2030
The Intergovernmental Ocean Commission has warned that this probability is close to 100% “over the next 30 years”claiming at the same time the urgent need to put in place an alert system to tsunamis in the region. On the Huelva and Cádiz side, the probability of a tsunami one meter high is 10%, 3% only if we’re talking about a three-meter wave.
Low intensity in the Basque Country, waves of eight meters in the Canaries
The study also highlights the area with the lowest risk in the entire Iberian Peninsula: the Cantabrian coast, where rising water levels remain possible in Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country, but with less intensity (a half meter, maximum). On the other hand, in the Canary Islands, on the western slope of Andalusia, waves could well exceed 8 metersalerted the researchers.
Once triggered, the tsunami spreads across the ocean in all directions, crossing it and reaching coastal areas. If these oscillations have enough energy, they can cross the ocean basin to the point of affecting the most distant coasts. For example, the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 reached the island of Sumatra in two hoursAnd hit Brazil 22 hours later.
On the other hand, on the Spanish coasts, the effect of a tidal wave would be practically immediate. But a regional tsunami, for example, generated southwest of Cape Saint Vincent, will reach the coast of Cádiz in about 40 minutesthe same time it will take for a tsunami generated in Algeria to reach the Balearic Islands.
A rare natural disaster, tsunamis rarely occur on earth, approximately once a year. Depending on their intensity, they can be very destructive.
